Alie Toppa

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
3.12 (fleet 4.29)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	+0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 88–15 (85%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2020	2	36–3	—
Spring 2019	4	37–6	—
Spring 2017	1	15–6	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 7 graded regattas (103 matches) the record is 88–15 against 84.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2020-02-29	Bob Bavier Team Race	skipper	3.62	4.20	19–2	17.8	+0.58	0.5	35%
2020-02-15	Nelson Roltsch Team Race	skipper	3.47	4.71	17–1	15.5	+1.24	1.2	23%
2019-05-25	LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.72	3.77	3–1	3.0	+0.05	0.0	73%
2019-03-16	Graham Hall	skipper	3.70	4.14	13–3	12.1	+0.44	0.3	40%
2019-03-02	Bob Bavier Team Race	skipper	3.63	3.91	7–2	6.6	+0.28	0.1	56%
2019-02-16	Nelson Roltsch Team Race	skipper	3.47	6.47	14–0	12.1	≥+3.00	3.1	10%
2017-03-25	2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race	skipper	3.21	2.44	15–6	17.3	−0.77	1.4	96%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Spring 2020 Team page Season
Nelson Roltsch Team Race	Skipper	TR	21	95%	—
Navy Spring Womens Women's	Skipper	A	14	4.1	4.19
Bob Bavier Team Race	Skipper	TR	21	90%	—
Fall 2019 Team page Season
SAISA Fall Women's Conference Championships Women's	Skipper	A	8	2.0	4.03
SAISA Co-Ed Conference Championships	Skipper	B	10	1.7	5.09
Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's	Skipper	A	10	7.0	4.26
Danmark Trophy	Skipper	B	18	8.2	4.06
Spring 2019 Team page Season
Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's	Skipper	A	13	5.4	4.15
Sperry Women's National Championship Women's	Skipper	A	16	7.3	4.13
Nelson Roltsch Team Race	Skipper	TR	14	100%	—
Navy Spring Women's Women's	Skipper	A	11	3.0	5.24
Navy Spring	Skipper	B	14	3.1	5.00
LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship	Skipper	TR	—	—	—
Graham Hall	Skipper	TR	15	80%	—
Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship	Skipper	B	12	8.8	4.22
Gill Coed Western Semifinal	Skipper	B	4	4.8	4.79
Emily Wick Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	14	5.8	4.11
Bob Bavier Team Race	Skipper	TR	19	68%	—
Admiral's Cup	Skipper	B	16	6.6	4.32
Fall 2018 Team page Season
Yale Women's Women's	Skipper	A	10	4.2	4.40
Women's Showcase Finals Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.3	4.04
Stu Nelson Women's	Skipper	A	9	3.1	4.65
SAISA Fall Women's Championships Women's	Skipper	A	10	1.4	5.32
SAISA Women's Open Women's	Skipper	A	10	1.1	6.46
SAISA Fall Co-ed Championships	Skipper	B	9	2.2	4.46
Jen Harris Women's Women's	Skipper	A	10	2.7	5.21
Spring 2018 Team page Season
Wick/Shrew Women's	Skipper	A	9	4.7	4.61
St. Mary's Women's InterConference Women's	Skipper	A	10	4.6	4.63
Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's	Skipper	A	12	4.9	4.25
Sperry Women's National Championship Women's	Skipper	A	18	7.9	3.93
SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's	Skipper	A	9	1.6	4.76
Phebe Corckran King Women's Women's	Skipper	A	13	3.5	3.96
Navy Spring Women's Women's	Skipper	A	16	4.9	4.49
Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal	Skipper	B	4	6.5	3.93
Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's	Skipper	A	17	8.4	3.67
Fall 2017 Team page Season
Yale Women's Women's	Skipper	B	13	7.6	3.42
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	A	8	11.2	2.88
SAISA Women's Fall Championships Women's	Skipper	A	9	2.3	3.50
Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	A	5	8.4	3.44
Jen Harris Navy Fall Women's Women's	Skipper	A	17	6.5	3.60
Spring 2017 Team page Season
St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's	Skipper	A	13	7.4	3.57
Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's	Skipper	A	8	4.6	4.33
Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's	Skipper	A	17	8.3	3.73
ODU Women's Interconference Women's	Skipper	B	12	3.9	3.42
Navy Spring Women's Women's	Skipper	A	9	8.7	2.65
Navy Spring	Skipper	A	15	10.5	3.26
Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's	Skipper	B	8	6.6	3.80
Charleston Women's Women's	Skipper	B	10	6.7	3.21
2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race	Skipper	TR	21	71%	—
Fall 2016 Team page Season
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's	Skipper	B	18	6.7	3.61
SAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Champs Women's	Skipper	A	7	1.6	4.37
Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's	Skipper	B	16	6.8	3.28

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Alie Toppa	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	'16

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →