Nelson Roltsch Team Race

HostTulane
Date02/15/2020
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatZ420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	20–1
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	19–2
3	Jacksonville University	Fins	14–7
4	Tulane University	Green Wave	12–9
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	8–13
6	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–16
7	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	4–17
8	University of Texas	Longhorns	0–21

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 14,182 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 69 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.316 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.06 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	2	11.37 school +0.47	Steven Leuck / Noelle Owen 3.56 Alie Toppa / Jack Sutton 3.47 Jack Brown / Hunter Skinner 3.71	86%	17–1 (94%)	+1.4
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	11.48 school +0.32	Parker Loftus / Sally Johnson 3.61 Connor Bayless / Kimmie Leonard 3.75 Jc Hermus / Emma Remis 3.77	88%	16–2 (89%)	+0.2
3	Jacksonville University Fins	3	9.47 school +0.22	Andre Guaragna / Caroline Bourgeois 3.16 Chris Kiener / Madison Reynolds Alfonso Garcia Bringas / Natalia Gagliano 3.42	57%	11–7 (61%)	+0.8
4	Tulane University Green Wave	6	8.66 home +0.36	Cameron Giblin / Grace Siwicki Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Amelia Schofield 2.72 William Keenan / Kate Lenhard 3–6 Caroline Benson / Kit Stoll 6–3	42%	9–9 (50%)	+1.4
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	7	8.45 school +0.07	Chris Kayda / Jack Holbrook 2.96 Sidney Gathrid / Joseph Politi 2.95 Sampson Reynolds / Sophie Thompson 2.36	38%	6–12 (33%)	−0.8
6	University of South Florida Bulls	4	5.99 school +0.16	Christian Koules / Lexie Foos Kathryn Bornarth / Samantha Kappaz 2.46 Andreas Keswater / Kalee Parmentier	48%	6–0 (100%)	+3.1
7	University of Wisconsin Badgers	5	8.44 school −0.05	Jonathan Bailey / Anna Thickens 2.63 Christian Spencer / Olivia Staruck 2.86 1–17 Samuel Bartel / Kate Britt 2.91 1–14 Samuel Bartel / Patrick Stiles 2.87 3–3 Christian Spencer / Noah Hallerman 2.85 3–0	46%	4–17 (19%)	−5.7
8	University of Texas Longhorns	8	3.99 school −0.07	Ota Dvorak / Vojtech Pavlis 0–9 Emily Verdoia / Taima Crean 1.33 0–6 Karina Bertelsmann / Mckenzie Kotara 1.09 0–6 Emily Verdoia / Theresa Mccomiskey 1.36 0–6 Emily Verdoia / Karina Bertelsmann 1.42 0–6 Ota Dvorak / Lillian Andersen 0–6 Karina Bertelsmann / Thomas Norman 1.01 0–3 Ota Dvorak / John Mason 0–3 Frederik Winguth / Thomas Norman 0.80 0–3 Karina Bertelsmann / Lillian Andersen 1.06 0–3 Ota Dvorak / Theresa Mccomiskey 0–3 Frederik Winguth / John Mason 0.82 0–3 Karina Bertelsmann / Warren Wegener 1.05 0–3 Frederik Winguth / Warren Wegener 0.83 0–3	2%	0–21 (0%)	−0.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	University of South Florida	5.99	8.99	6–0	2.9	≥+3.00	9.4	<1%
1	College of Charleston	11.37	12.61	17–1	15.5	+1.24	1.2	23%
4	Tulane University	8.66	9.24	9–9	7.6	+0.57	0.6	27%
3	Jacksonville University	9.47	9.80	11–7	10.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
2	U. S. Naval Academy	11.48	11.63	16–2	15.8	+0.14	0.0	62%
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.45	8.08	6–12	6.8	−0.37	0.2	80%
7	University of Wisconsin	8.44	5.62	4–17	9.7	−2.82	10.6	>99%
8	University of Texas	3.99	0.99	0–21	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Christian Koules	University of South Florida	1.70	4.70	6–0	2.9	≥+3.00	9.4	<1%
Andreas Keswater	University of South Florida	1.34	4.34	6–0	2.9	≥+3.00	9.4	<1%
Alie Toppa	College of Charleston	3.47	4.71	17–1	15.5	+1.24	1.2	23%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	3.71	4.95	17–1	15.5	+1.24	1.2	23%
William Keenan	Tulane University	1.90	2.85	3–6	1.9	+0.95	0.8	27%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	2.72	3.29	9–9	7.6	+0.57	0.6	27%
Andre Guaragna	Jacksonville University	3.16	3.49	11–7	10.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Alfonso Garcia Bringas	Jacksonville University	3.42	3.75	11–7	10.2	+0.33	0.2	43%
Jc Hermus	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	3.92	16–2	15.8	+0.14	0.0	62%
Sidney Gathrid	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.95	2.58	6–12	6.8	−0.37	0.2	80%
Sampson Reynolds	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.36	2.00	6–12	6.8	−0.37	0.2	80%
Ota Dvorak	University of Texas	1.45	-1.55	0–21	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Emily Verdoia	University of Texas	1.33	-1.67	0–18	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Karina Bertelsmann	University of Texas	1.09	-1.91	0–15	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%
Frederik Winguth	University of Texas	0.80	-2.20	0–9	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of South Florida	University of Texas	87%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	96%
1	3	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	72%
1	4	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	6	Jacksonville University	University of Texas	100%
1	7	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	51%
1	8	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	89%
1	10	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	7%	upset
1	11	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Texas	99%
1	12	College of Charleston	Tulane University	94%
1	13	Jacksonville University	University of Wisconsin	73%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	96%
1	16	College of Charleston	University of Texas	100%
1	17	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	50%	upset
1	18	Tulane University	Jacksonville University	29%	upset
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Texas	100%
1	21	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	55%
1	22	University of Wisconsin	University of Texas	99%
1	24	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
1	25	Tulane University	University of Texas	99%
1	27	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	96%
1	28	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	87%
2	29	University of South Florida	University of Texas	88%
2	30	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	95%
2	31	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	74%
2	32	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	95%
2	34	Jacksonville University	University of Texas	100%
2	35	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	53%
2	36	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	88%
2	38	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	8%	upset
2	39	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Texas	99%
2	40	College of Charleston	Tulane University	94%
2	41	Jacksonville University	University of Wisconsin	74%
2	42	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
2	44	College of Charleston	University of Texas	100%
2	45	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	50%	upset
2	46	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	68%
2	47	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Texas	100%
2	49	Tulane University	University of California at Santa Barbara	58%
2	50	University of Wisconsin	University of Texas	99%
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	52%
2	53	Tulane University	University of Texas	99%
2	55	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	95%
2	56	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	87%
3	57	University of South Florida	University of Texas	88%
3	58	U. S. Naval Academy	Tulane University	95%
3	59	Jacksonville University	University of California at Santa Barbara	74%
3	60	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	95%
3	62	Jacksonville University	University of Texas	100%
3	63	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	54%
3	64	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
3	65	U. S. Naval Academy	Jacksonville University	88%
3	66	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	9%	upset
3	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Texas	99%
3	68	College of Charleston	Tulane University	94%
3	69	Jacksonville University	University of Wisconsin	74%
3	70	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
3	72	College of Charleston	University of Texas	100%
3	73	University of Wisconsin	University of California at Santa Barbara	50%	upset
3	74	Jacksonville University	Tulane University	66%
3	75	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Texas	100%
3	77	University of California at Santa Barbara	Tulane University	41%	upset
3	78	University of Wisconsin	University of Texas	98%
3	80	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
3	81	Tulane University	University of Texas	99%
3	83	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	95%
3	84	College of Charleston	Jacksonville University	87%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Fins	Wave	Gauchos	Bulls	Badgers	Longhorns
College of Charleston Cougars	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Texas Longhorns	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Fins	Wave	Gauchos	Bulls	Badgers	Longhorns
College of Charleston Cougars	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Texas Longhorns	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Midshipmen	Fins	Wave	Gauchos	Bulls	Badgers	Longhorns
College of Charleston Cougars	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jacksonville University Fins	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of Texas Longhorns	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Longhorns	3-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
3	Fins	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
4	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
5	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
6	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
7	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
8	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Fins	3-5-6
10	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
11	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Longhorns	3-4-6
12	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
13	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
14	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
15	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
16	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
17	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Badgers	2-4-6
18	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Longhorns	3-5-6
20	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Bulls	2-4-6
21	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
22	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Longhorns	3-5-6
23	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
24	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
25	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
26	Gauchos	1-4-5	def.	Bulls	2-3-6
27	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
28	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Fins	3-4-6
29	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Longhorns	3-5-6
30	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
31	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
32	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
33	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
34	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
35	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
36	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6 OCS
37	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
38	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Badgers	1-4-6
39	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Longhorns	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
41	Fins	1-3-4	def.	Badgers	2-5-6
42	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
43	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
45	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
46	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
47	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
48	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
49	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
50	Badgers	1-2-6	def.	Longhorns	3-4-5
51	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
52	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
53	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Longhorns	3-4-6
54	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
55	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
56	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
57	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
58	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
59	Fins	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
60	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
61	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
62	Fins	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
63	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
64	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
65	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6
66	Bulls	1-2-6 DSQ	def.	Badgers	3-4-5 DSQ
67	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
68	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
69	Fins	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
70	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
71	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
72	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
73	Badgers	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
74	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
75	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
76	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
77	Gauchos	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
78	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
79	Fins	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
80	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
81	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Longhorns	4-5-6
82	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
83	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
84	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Fins	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Alie Toppa '20 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Jack Sutton '22 Hunter Skinner '20 Noelle Owen '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Connor Bayless '21 Jc Hermus '22 Parker Loftus '20	Kimmie Leonard '22 Emma Remis '20 Sally Johnson '22
Jacksonville University	Fins	Alfonso Garcia Bringas '21 Andre Guaragna '21 Chris Kiener '21	Natalia Gagliano '23 Caroline Bourgeois '22 Madison Reynolds '21
Tulane University	Green Wave	Cameron Giblin '23 Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 William Keenan '23	Grace Siwicki '22 Kit Stoll '23 Amelia Schofield '22 Kate Lenhard '21
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Chris Kayda '23 Sampson Reynolds '21 Sidney Gathrid '22	Jack Holbrook '21 Sophie Thompson '21 Joseph Politi '22
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andreas Keswater '23 Christian Koules '21 Kathryn Bornarth '21	Kalee Parmentier '23 Lexie Foos '22 Samantha Kappaz '21
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Christian Spencer '22 Jonathan Bailey '22 Samuel Bartel '22	Olivia Staruck '20 Noah Hallerman '23 Anna Thickens '21 Kate Britt '21 Patrick Stiles '22
University of Texas	Longhorns	Emily Verdoia '20 Frederik Winguth '21 Karina Bertelsmann '22 Ota Dvorak '22	Taima Crean '22 Theresa Mccomiskey '22 Karina Bertelsmann '22 Warren Wegener '23 Thomas Norman '23 John Mason '23 Lillian Andersen '21 Mckenzie Kotara '21 Vojtech Pavlis '22

Conditions — 02/15/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.6 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From E (99°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover15% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1026.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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