University of Pennsylvania '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.99 (fleet 2.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–44 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 13–16 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 8–28 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (65 matches) the record is 21–44 against 24.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.44 | 1.37 | 2–12 | 4.2 | −1.07 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2020-02-29 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.39 | 2.95 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.56 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.38 | 2.42 | 5–16 | 4.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | 0.94 | 3–12 | 5.5 | −0.96 | 1.6 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.5 | 2.82 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.7 | 2.68 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Philly Fleet Race Central Series | Skipper | B | 15 | 2.1 | 3.46 |
| Central Early Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.5 | 2.81 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 10 | 13.1 | 1.91 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Fall Qualifer | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.68 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 24% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial Backup | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | 0.66 |
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 11.2 | 2.38 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.1 | 1.92 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.7 | 2.62 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.3 | 2.57 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
