| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 9–0 |
| 2 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | 5–4 |
| 4 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 4–5 |
| 5 |  |
Bentley University | Falcons | 1–8 |
| 5 | |
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,249 team race matches sailed before 2016-10-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 27 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.326 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 9.32 | 12.32 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 6.24 | 7.49 | 5–4 | 3.4 | +1.25 | 1.5 | 15% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7.36 | 8.18 | 7–2 | 6.1 | +0.83 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 5 | Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 4.54 | 4.00 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 5 | Bentley University Falcons | 4.62 | 4.08 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 4 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 8.01 | 6.22 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −1.79 | 3.0 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Harding | Roger Williams University | 3.48 | 6.48 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| James Kennedy | Roger Williams University | 2.54 | 5.54 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| Kendal Richardson | Roger Williams University | 3.11 | 6.11 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| Julien Guiot | Tufts University | 2.47 | 3.72 | 5–4 | 3.4 | +1.25 | 1.5 | 15% |
| Andrew Savage | Tufts University | 1.28 | 2.54 | 5–4 | 3.4 | +1.25 | 1.5 | 15% |
| Henry Stames | Roger Williams University | 2.00 | 2.83 | 7–2 | 6.1 | +0.83 | 0.5 | 36% |
| John Duncan | Tufts University | 1.39 | 0.85 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Colby Vickerson | Bentley University | 1.40 | 0.86 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Mary Shea | Bentley University | 1.17 | 0.63 | 1–8 | 1.4 | −0.54 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Matthew Gibbs | University of Rhode Island | 2.65 | 0.86 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −1.79 | 3.0 | 99% |
| Peter Girard | University of Rhode Island | 2.13 | 0.34 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −1.79 | 3.0 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | Rams | Falcons | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 9–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Bentley University Falcons | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–7 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | 1 | Rams | Falcons | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 7–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos 1 | 3–5 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 2–2 | W | W | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Bentley University Falcons | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Tufts University Jumbos 2 | 3–5 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 DSQ |
| 4 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Hawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Hawks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Jumbos 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Jumbos 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | Conner Harding '19 James Kennedy '17 Kendal Richardson '17 |
Michael Mcbrien '18 Virginia Yeatts '19 Kristi Dolan '20 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | Henry Stames '18 Peter Neal '20 Preston Duclos '19 |
Brigette Croke '17 Samuel Dorothy '19 Sarah Jacklin '20 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 1 | Andrew Savage '19 Julien Guiot '18 Nicholas Giacobbe '19 |
Grant Tilson '20 Chloe Amouyal '20 Lucy Robison '18 |
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Dakota Northrup '19 Matthew Gibbs '17 Peter Girard '18 |
Ian Nannig '19 Ryan Geib '19 Sarah Morin '18 |
|
Bentley University | Falcons | Colby Vickerson '17 Mary Shea '18 Nicholas Memoli '20 |
Alyson Schwerdtfeger '19 Graham Smith '19 Brian Kiley '20 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos 2 | Elena Gonick '20 John Duncan '19 Taylor Hart '19 |
Anna Robling '19 Kelsey Foster '20 Kahler Newsham '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
