University of Rhode Island '17
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 39.83 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.095 rating points from 111 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.29 (fleet 3.18) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 34–49 (41%) as crew 11–19 (37%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 18–16 | 2–3 |
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 12–28 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 4–11 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 4–2 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | — | 1–3 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 45–68 against 54.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−9.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.13 | 8–6 | 9.7 | −0.55 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2018-03-17 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | crew | 3.13 | 2.40 | 2–3 | 2.8 | −0.72 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 2.38 | 2.28 | 10–10 | 10.3 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.65 | 0.86 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −1.79 | 3.0 | 99% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.96 | -0.09 | 2–19 | 7.5 | −2.05 | 7.0 | >99% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 1.88 | 2.98 | 10–9 | 7.4 | +1.10 | 2.1 | 8% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | crew | 3.19 | 3.08 | 4–11 | 4.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | crew | 3.23 | 2.74 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | crew | 2.72 | 1.82 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −0.90 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 3 | 5.3 | — |
| Southern Series at URI | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 2.52 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 3.83 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 50% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Crew | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 3.23 |
| Central 2 | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 3.22 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.83 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.8 | 3.05 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.1 | 2.98 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.4 | 2.42 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 9.4 | 3.33 |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 11.7 | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | 2.10 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 7 | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 1.85 |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 10% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.9 | 2.01 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 2.31 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 53% | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 3.20 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 2.54 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 3.20 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 14.0 | 0.90 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.1 | 1.77 |
| Donaghy Bowl | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.6 | 1.11 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 10.0 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.1 | 1.74 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Crew | A | 3 | 14.0 | — |
| Admiral Alymers | Crew | B | 5 | 5.8 | — |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Crew | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Crew | B | 11 | 2.7 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.8 | 2.41 |
| Lane Trophy | Crew | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 14.5 | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 7.3 | — |
| Gardiner Island Invite | Crew | A | 10 | 7.2 | — |
| Barnett Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 8.2 | — |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.4 | 0.37 |
| Thames River Team Race | Crew | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Icebreaker Regatta | Crew | A | 6 | 5.7 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Crew | A | 8 | 4.8 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Crew | A | 10 | 4.8 | — |
| Southern Series 3 | Crew | A | 8 | 12.4 | — |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 6.5 | — |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 14.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
