Roger Williams University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.46 (fleet 3.39) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–2 (90%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 | 1 | 9–0 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 9–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 18–2 against 17.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-16 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.11 | 6.11 | 9–0 | 8.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 2014-03-29 | Herring Pond Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 2.42 | 9–2 | 8.7 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 15 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Coast Guard J70 Invitational Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.1 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| McMillan Cup at Navy Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 7.3 | — |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 8.1 | 3.51 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| 74th Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 16 | 3.6 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.3 | 3.34 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.7 | 3.07 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.89 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 3.14 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 3.34 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.3 | 3.31 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Seven | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.0 | 2.14 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.7 | 3.33 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.7 | 3.70 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.5 | 3.30 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 2.67 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.9 | 2.43 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 1 @ SRU | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.0 | 1.96 |
| Herring Pond Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.6 | 2.62 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 8.3 | 1.34 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 11 | 1.9 | 3.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
