Northeastern University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.23 (fleet 3.07) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–13 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 1–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (17 matches) the record is 4–13 against 3.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | skipper | 2.10 | 2.65 | 3–4 | 2.2 | +0.55 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 2.22 | 1.69 | 1–9 | 1.4 | −0.53 | 0.1 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.5 | 3.60 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.6 | 3.05 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.2 | 2.35 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 4 | 4.2 | 4.21 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.1 | 2.33 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.2 | 4.02 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | 2.58 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.5 | 2.40 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.6 | 2.54 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 17.2 | 0.11 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 2.55 |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 2.54 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.1 | 2.57 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 1.74 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.4 | 1.82 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 15.8 | 1.86 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.8 | 2.49 |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 2.26 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.9 | 2.63 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 7.4 | 2.88 |
| Dark of Night | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.5 | -1.91 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.0 | 2.55 |
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 10% | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.0 | 2.64 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.8 | 2.24 |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.8 | 2.53 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.7 | 2.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
