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Peak Foliage Invitational

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 24
2 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 34
3 Providence College Providence College Friars 61
4 Redbirds Redbirds Redbirds 68
5 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 75
6 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 87
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 110
8 Williams College Williams College Ephs 111
9 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 1 1 2 2 6 Florian Eenkema Van Dijk '19
Sarah Bunney '19
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 4 2 1 1 8 Peter Sterflinger '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
Providence College Providence College Friars A 2 3 6 5 16 Anna Bloomstine '19
Cicely Dahn '19
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 3 7 5 3 18 John Duncan '19
Andrew Savage '19
Redbirds Redbirds Redbirds A 6 4 8 8 26
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 7 10 3 6 26 John Cappetta '16
Mary Ferguson '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 8 5 9 4 26 George Williams '17
Benjamin Hawkins '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 5 6 4 11 26 Thomas Pluchino '18
Brianne Giambagno '18
Williams College Williams College Ephs A 10 8 12 9 39 Jorge Castro '16
Dorothy Gaby '18
Redbirds Redbirds Redbirds B 14 11 7 10 42
Providence College Providence College Friars B 9 12 11 13 45 Jackie Degeorgis '19
Kohl Peasley '19
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 17 15 10 7 49 Michael Connolly '18
Olivia Mclaughlin '18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 11 13 14 12 50 Morgan Tanski '19
Hannah Townsend '19
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst B 15 9 13 14 51 Molly Gallagher '17
Jenna Careri '17
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 16 14 15 15 60 Rudolf Hauser '19
No Show
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 12 16 17 16 61 Andrew Moreau '17
Jack Matias '19
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst A 13 17 16 17 63 Amelia Vinciguerra '17
Savannah Kangas '19
Williams College Williams College Ephs B 18 18 18 18 72 Beatrix Haddock '18
Gabriella Gonzalez '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats1122
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies6677
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats2233
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst7788
RedbirdsRedbirds Redbirds3344
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats8899
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars4455
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos5566
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats10101111
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies15151616
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats11111212
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst16161717
RedbirdsRedbirds Redbirds12121313
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats17171818
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars13131414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos14141515
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs181811

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1029.6 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SE (131°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine6.6 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1029.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →