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LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Haddon Hughes '19 8 8 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 30
Brown University Brown University Lindsey Baab '18 5 1 5 2 2 2 2 5 3 3 2 32
Boston College Boston College Isabella Loosbrock '19 2 3 6 6 7 3 4 3 2 8 1 45
George Washington University George Washington University Sarah Alexander '19 10 4 11 3 4 5 6 6 4 2 9 64
University of South Florida University of South Florida Sarah Streater '18 3 7 2 4 6 6 9 8 8 5 11 69
George Washington University George Washington University Riley Legault '19 6 5 1 12 11 10 8 4 9 6 4 76
Georgetown University Georgetown University Lola Bushnell '18 7 10 10 10 5 4 3 2 13 9 7 80
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Dana Rohde '18 1 6 7 9 8 7 5 9 10 14 6 82
Stanford University Stanford University Haley Fox '18 11 18 17 7 3 8 7 7 6 7 5 96
College of Charleston College of Charleston Rebekah Schiff '16 12 11 3 14 17 11 17 11 7 4 12 119
Cornell University Cornell University Quinn Howes '16 RAF 9 12 8 9 12 10 10 5 13 16 123
Connecticut College Connecticut College Charlotte List '18 4 12 8 11 13 13 12 16 14 12 10 125
Harvard University Harvard University Taylor Ladd '18 9 2 13 17 10 15 13 13 15 11 8 126
Stanford University Stanford University Olivia Gugliemini '19 15 14 16 5 12 9 11 12 11 10 15 130
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Megan Mcmahon '17 13 13 15 13 16 14 15 15 16 16 17 163
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Caitlin Schadt '18 16 17 18 15 15 17 14 14 12 15 14 167
Tulane University Tulane University Jessica Oswalt '16 14 15 9 16 14 18 18 17 17 17 13 168
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Leslie Poole '16 17 16 14 DNF DNF 16 16 DNF DNS DNS DNS 193

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Haddon Hughes '19Georgetown University Hoyas 111/112.944.63+1.6980th → 99th7.71%2.7 / 7.1
2Lindsey Baab '18Brown University11/112.584.65+2.0767th → 99th11.2<1%2.9 / 7.9
3Isabella Loosbrock '19Boston College11/112.103.97+1.8755th → 95th10.00%4.1 / 9.3
4Sarah Alexander '19George Washington University Colonials 111/111.963.24+1.2850th → 85th5.44%5.8 / 9.7
5Sarah Streater '18University of South Florida11/112.363.10+0.7560th → 84th2.020%6.3 / 8.7
6Riley Legault '19George Washington University Colonials 211/112.492.85+0.3663rd → 78th0.528%6.9 / 8.3
7Lola Bushnell '18Georgetown University Hoyas 211/112.562.74+0.1767th → 73rd0.138%7.3 / 8.1
8Dana Rohde '18U. S. Coast Guard Academy11/112.762.63−0.1374th → 69th0.153%7.5 / 7.5
9Haley Fox '18Stanford University Cardinal 111/111.971.86−0.1151st → 47th0.036%8.7 / 9.7
10Rebekah Schiff '16College of Charleston11/112.281.38−0.9059th → 34th3.676%10.8 / 8.9
11Quinn Howes '16Cornell University11/111.821.91+0.1045th → 48th0.064%11.2 / 10.1
12Charlotte List '18Connecticut College11/112.071.65−0.4354th → 41st0.977%11.4 / 9.3
13Taylor Ladd '18Harvard University11/112.261.37−0.8959th → 33rd3.782%11.5 / 8.8
14Olivia Gugliemini '19Stanford University Cardinal 211/111.621.55−0.0740th → 39th0.070%11.8 / 10.7
15Megan Mcmahon '17University of Wisconsin Badgers 211/111.270.77−0.5030th → 18th1.190%14.8 / 11.5
16Caitlin Schadt '18University of Hawaii11/111.040.68−0.3624th → 17th0.690%15.2 / 12.0
17Jessica Oswalt '16Tulane University11/110.94-0.03−0.9721st → 6th3.088%15.3 / 12.3
18Leslie Poole '16University of Wisconsin Badgers 111/111.410.36−1.0534th → 11th2.3>99%17.5 / 11.1

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine5.5 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.27 in

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →