College of Charleston '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 75.53 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.088 rating points from 176 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.45 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 58 | Fall 2015 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.26 (fleet 3.13) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 52–10 (84%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 6–0 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 23–3 |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | — | 23–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (60 matches) the record is 50–10 against 41.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+8.3). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 4.08 | 7.08 | 6–0 | 5.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 77% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 4.34 | 5.13 | 21–3 | 18.7 | +0.79 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | crew | 3.86 | 6.86 | 3–0 | 1.9 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 18% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | crew | 3.79 | 4.43 | 13–5 | 10.7 | +0.64 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | crew | 3.58 | 4.92 | 7–2 | 4.7 | +1.34 | 2.1 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.1 | 2.32 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.0 | 2.08 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | 2.47 |
| SAISA Women's Conference Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.3 | 4.69 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 3.44 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | A, B | 18 | 6.9 | — |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.2 | 2.77 |
| SAISA Women's Singlehanded Champs Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | — |
| SAISA Women's Champs Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 3.4 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 10 | 5.7 | 2.83 |
| LaserPerformance Women's Singlehanded Championship Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.8 | 2.01 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 9 | 3.3 | — |
| Navy Spring | Crew | B | 6 | 4.2 | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | A | 11 | 4.0 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 6 | 4.7 | — |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Crew | B | 9 | 7.9 | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 9.2 | — |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 24 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Womens Fall 2014 Doublehanded Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.4 | -1.10 |
| SAISA Fall Womens Singlehanded Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 3.50 |
| SAISA Conference Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 2.5 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 15 | 7.0 | 2.54 |
| Navy Fall | Crew | A | 12 | 8.2 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.9 | 2.92 |
| Women's Singlehanded Nationals Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 5 | 13.0 | 1.88 |
| Atlantic Coast Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.9 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Crew | A, B | 3 | 5.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 2.90 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Crew | B | 1 | 2.0 | — |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.8 | 1.50 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Crew | A, B | 6 | 9.0 | — |
| SMC Fall Interconference | Crew | A | 18 | 8.8 | — |
| SAISA Women's Singlehanded Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.2 | 3.11 |
| SAISA Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.5 | 2.61 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 18 | 8.4 | 2.35 |
| ICSA/LP Women's Singlehanded Champs Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.3 | 2.05 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 13 | 8.0 | — |
| St. Mary's Womens Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 10.9 | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Crew | B | 3 | 4.0 | — |
| Charleston Womens Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 6.5 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA Open | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.3 | 2.37 |
| SAISA North Points #3 | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.3 | 1.66 |
| SAISA/MAISA | Crew | B | 20 | 5.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
