| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Boston College | Erika Reineke '17 | 10 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Lindsey Baab '18 | 17 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Dana Rohde '18 | 19 |
| 4 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Catherine Shanahan '15 | 25 |
| 5 |  |
Georgetown University | Lola Bushnell '18 | 26 |
| 6 |  |
Stanford University | Sarah Mace '14 | 31 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Mary Hall '15 | 38 |
| 8 |  |
College of Charleston | Clerc Cooper '15 | 43 |
| 9 |  |
University of California at Santa Barbara | Simone Staff '18 | 47 |
| 10 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Rosalind Lesh '16 | 48 |
| 11 | |
Brown University | Kelly Mcglynn '15 | 55 |
| 12 |  |
University of Washington | Eliza Dawson '18 | 59 |
| 13 |  |
Connecticut College | Liz Dubovik '15 | 64 |
| 14 | |
College of Charleston | Rebekah Schiff '16 | 65 |
| 15 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Emma Ferris '15 | 66 |
| 16 |  |
Tulane University | Alexandra Payne '15 | 77 |
| 17 |  |
University of Minnesota | Alison Kent '16 | 77 |
| 18 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Megan Mcmahon '17 | 88 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erika Reineke '17 | Boston College | 5/5 | 3.55 | 5.79 | +2.24 | 92nd → 99th | 5.1 | 1% | 2.0 / 6.2 |
| 2 | Lindsey Baab '18 | Brown University Bears 2 | 5/5 | 2.31 | 4.65 | +2.34 | 60th → 99th | 6.5 | 1% | 3.4 / 9.4 |
| 3 | Dana Rohde '18 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 5/5 | 2.44 | 4.17 | +1.73 | 62nd → 97th | 3.9 | 2% | 3.8 / 9.1 |
| 4 | Catherine Shanahan '15 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 5/5 | 2.62 | 3.89 | +1.26 | 69th → 94th | 2.4 | 9% | 5.0 / 8.7 |
| 5 | Lola Bushnell '18 | Georgetown University | 5/5 | 2.48 | 3.86 | +1.38 | 62nd → 94th | 2.8 | 8% | 5.2 / 9.0 |
| 6 | Sarah Mace '14 | Stanford University | 5/5 | 2.54 | 3.46 | +0.92 | 66th → 89th | 1.4 | 23% | 6.2 / 8.8 |
| 7 | Mary Hall '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 5/5 | 2.99 | 2.78 | −0.21 | 81st → 75th | 0.1 | 54% | 7.6 / 7.6 |
| 8 | Clerc Cooper '15 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 5/5 | 2.64 | 2.69 | +0.05 | 70th → 71st | 0.0 | 55% | 8.6 / 8.5 |
| 9 | Simone Staff '18 | University of California at Santa Barbara | 5/5 | 2.22 | 2.69 | +0.47 | 58th → 71st | 0.4 | 49% | 9.4 / 9.6 |
| 10 | Rosalind Lesh '16 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 5/5 | 2.45 | 2.43 | −0.02 | 62nd → 62nd | 0.0 | 58% | 9.6 / 9.1 |
| 11 | Kelly Mcglynn '15 | Brown University Bears 1 | 5/5 | 2.27 | 1.99 | −0.28 | 59th → 51st | 0.2 | 68% | 11.0 / 9.6 |
| 12 | Eliza Dawson '18 | University of Washington | 5/5 | 2.63 | 1.77 | −0.86 | 69th → 43rd | 1.6 | 84% | 11.8 / 8.6 |
| 13 | Liz Dubovik '15 | Connecticut College | 5/5 | 2.20 | 1.56 | −0.64 | 58th → 39th | 0.9 | 83% | 12.8 / 9.7 |
| 14 | Rebekah Schiff '16 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 5/5 | 2.03 | 1.55 | −0.47 | 53rd → 39th | 0.5 | 80% | 13.0 / 10.2 |
| 15 | Emma Ferris '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 5/5 | 1.93 | 1.04 | −0.89 | 49th → 24th | 1.5 | 83% | 13.2 / 10.5 |
| 16 | Alexandra Payne '15 | Tulane University | 5/5 | 1.21 | 0.83 | −0.38 | 28th → 18th | 0.3 | 85% | 15.4 / 12.3 |
| 16 | Alison Kent '16 | University of Minnesota | 5/5 | 1.70 | 1.05 | −0.65 | 42nd → 24th | 0.9 | 92% | 15.4 / 11.0 |
| 18 | Megan Mcmahon '17 | University of Wisconsin | 5/5 | 0.92 | -0.62 | −1.54 | 21st → 2nd | 3.0 | 99% | 17.6 / 13.0 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
