Massachusetts Institute of Technology '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.70 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 30 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–12 (40%) as crew 0–4 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 6–12 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | — | 0–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 6–12 against 10.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.04 | 1.84 | 6–12 | 10.3 | −1.20 | 3.7 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.0 | 3.37 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.1 | 3.32 |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.2 | 3.56 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.8 | 3.58 |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.2 | 3.17 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.6 | 3.50 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 2.90 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.4 | 3.98 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.8 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.7 | 3.26 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.6 | 2.50 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.1 | 3.31 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | B | 16 | 3.9 | 3.19 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.1 | 3.01 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.0 | 3.36 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.6 | 3.51 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.0 | 2.69 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.6 | 2.99 |
| Women's Singlehanded Nationals Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.6 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 7.5 | 2.54 |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.8 | 2.62 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.0 | 2.40 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.2 | 2.97 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 3.87 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 3.5 | 3.83 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 2.63 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.0 | 2.76 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.7 | 2.41 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | C | 18 | 5.8 | 3.07 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.2 | — |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 3.0 | — |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.1 | 2.39 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 13.0 | 0.34 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.4 | 2.18 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.3 | 1.78 |
| NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships Women's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.0 | 1.53 |
| FJ Invitational Day 2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 1.51 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
