NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championships

Women's
HostConnecticut College
Date09/29/2012
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	30
2	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Lauren Cefali '15	67
3	Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	73
4	Yale University	Emily Billing '13	74
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	79
6	Yale University	Urska Kosir '15	81
7	Brown University	Sky Adams '14	84
8	Boston College	Carolyn Naughton '14	118
9	Harvard University	Morgan Russom '14	131
10	Northeastern University	Tasha Greenwood '15	142
11	Brown University	Kelly Mcglynn '15	149
12	Brown University	Jessica Claflin '13	152
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hanna Vincent '14	159
14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Rosalind Lesh '16	163
15	Connecticut College	Alexandra Romagnoli '15	165
16	Tufts University	Sarah Stubbs '16	171
17	Tufts University	Amanda Sommi '16	172
18	Connecticut College	Liz Dubovik '15	215

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	1	1	4	1	3	2	1	1	4	3	1	5	3	30
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Lauren Cefali '15	9	9	6	3	2	3	8	4	3	10	3	3	4	67
Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	6	6	7	5	5	4	3	6	8	12	4	1	6	73
Yale University	Emily Billing '13	12	7	11	4	8	7	7	10	2	1	2	2	1	74
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	3	5	5	6	4	1	10	3	6	7	8	7	14	79
Yale University	Urska Kosir '15	4	8	1	2	15	6	14	2	1	2	15	9	2	81
Brown University	Sky Adams '14	2	2	3	10	1	13	5	5	5	4	10	15	9	84
Boston College	Carolyn Naughton '14	8	10	2	15	11	10	4	8	14	11	6	8	11	118
Harvard University	Morgan Russom '14	16	11	12	8	16	12	2	11	7	5	16	10	5	131
Northeastern University	Tasha Greenwood '15	13	14	14	9	6	9	6	7	10	14	14	14	12	142
Brown University	Kelly Mcglynn '15	10	18	13	7	14	8	12	16	11	15	7	11	7	149
Brown University	Jessica Claflin '13	7	17	18	18	17	5	9	13	16	8	5	4	15	152
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hanna Vincent '14	15	4	10	12	9	17	15	12	12	13	13	17	10	159
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Rosalind Lesh '16	5	3	16	16	7	11	17	14	17	17	RAF	13	8	163
Connecticut College	Alexandra Romagnoli '15	17	16	9	11	10	15	16	9	9	16	9	12	16	165
Tufts University	Sarah Stubbs '16	11	13	15	17	18	16	13	17	15	6	11	6	13	171
Tufts University	Amanda Sommi '16	14	12	8	14	13	18	11	15	13	9	12	16	17	172
Connecticut College	Liz Dubovik '15	DNF	15	17	13	12	14	18	18	18	18	17	18	18	215

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Erika Reineke '17	Boston College Eagles 2	13/13	3.20	4.93	+1.73	85th → 99th	8.9	<1%	2.3 / 5.9
2	Lauren Cefali '15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	13/13	1.80	3.33	+1.53	44th → 88th	8.6	4%	5.2 / 9.7
3	Claire Dennis '13	Yale University Elis	13/13	2.66	3.11	+0.44	71st → 84th	0.9	21%	5.6 / 7.3
4	Emily Billing '13	Yale University Bulldogs 1	13/13	2.50	2.97	+0.46	64th → 81st	1.0	17%	5.7 / 7.7
5	Christina Frost '16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	13/13	1.72	2.94	+1.21	43rd → 80th	5.8	4%	6.1 / 9.9
6	Urska Kosir '15	Yale University Bulldogs 2	13/13	1.74	2.57	+0.83	43rd → 67th	2.8	9%	6.2 / 9.7
7	Sky Adams '14	Brown University Bears 1	13/13	2.33	2.63	+0.31	60th → 69th	0.4	22%	6.5 / 8.2
8	Carolyn Naughton '14	Boston College Eagles 1	13/13	2.06	2.12	+0.06	53rd → 56th	0.0	54%	9.1 / 8.9
9	Morgan Russom '14	Harvard University	13/13	2.05	1.65	−0.40	53rd → 41st	0.8	67%	10.1 / 8.9
10	Tasha Greenwood '15	Northeastern University	13/13	1.21	1.77	+0.55	29th → 43rd	1.4	45%	10.9 / 11.2
11	Kelly Mcglynn '15	Brown University Bears 2	13/13	1.51	1.45	−0.07	38th → 35th	0.0	65%	11.5 / 10.4
12	Jessica Claflin '13	Brown University Bears 3	13/13	2.02	0.90	−1.12	53rd → 21st	6.7	84%	11.7 / 9.1
13	Hanna Vincent '14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers	13/13	1.75	1.31	−0.44	43rd → 30th	1.1	87%	12.2 / 9.7
14	Rosalind Lesh '16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	13/13	1.46	1.20	−0.26	36th → 28th	0.3	76%	12.5 / 10.6
15	Alexandra Romagnoli '15	Connecticut College Connecticut College	13/13	1.19	1.19	−0.01	28th → 28th	0.0	70%	12.7 / 11.2
16	Sarah Stubbs '16	Tufts University Jumbos	13/13	1.14	1.07	−0.08	25th → 25th	0.0	76%	13.2 / 11.3
17	Amanda Sommi '16	Tufts University Jumbalaya	13/13	1.44	1.09	−0.35	35th → 25th	0.6	85%	13.2 / 10.5
18	Liz Dubovik '15	Connecticut College Camels	13/13	1.44	-0.66	−2.11	35th → 2nd	16.2	>99%	16.5 / 10.6

Conditions — 09/29/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1012.8 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 13.2 kn

From NNW (347°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.2 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1012.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.15)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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