ICSA/LP Women's Singlehanded Champs

Women's
HostBrown
Date11/08/2013
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	49
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	69
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	93
4	Brown University	Sky Adams '14	95
5	Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	107
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	109
7	Stanford University	Sarah Mace '14	116
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	136
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	143
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hanna Vincent '14	193
11	University of Washington	Lily Grimshaw '15	195
12	College of Charleston	Rebekah Schiff '16	221
13	Boston College	Carolyn Naughton '14	227
14	College of Charleston	Clerc Cooper '15	229
15	Yale University	Urska Kosir '15	236
16	U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	252
17	University of Minnesota	Alison Kent '16	303
18	Tulane University	Jessica Oswalt '16	326

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Boston College	Erika Reineke '17	1	1	1	1	2	DSQ	2	1	1	2	3	3	2	1	5	1	1	2	49
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	3	2	3	2	5	3	1	2	5	6	5	10	7	2	1	5	2	5	69
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Christina Frost '16	5	3	11	3	3	2	5	8	13	5	6	9	4	3	6	3	3	1	93
Brown University	Sky Adams '14	2	7	4	10	4	4	3	3	9	9	4	2	1	5	7	10	7	4	95
Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	6	4	2	5	8	1	12	6	7	3	15	1	9	11	3	2	4	8	107
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	9	6	8	4	16	5	4	4	2	4	2	6	5	7	9	6	6	6	109
Stanford University	Sarah Mace '14	4	5	6	8	1	9	14	5	8	1	14	7	8	4	2	8	9	3	116
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Catherine Shanahan '15	8	16	5	7	9	6	9	13	12	7	1	5	6	9	4	7	5	7	136
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	10	9	7	12	7	7	7	9	3	8	13	4	3	6	8	9	8	13	143
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Hanna Vincent '14	7	8	10	6	13	13	6	14	10	11	17	8	12	14	10	4	11	DNF	193
University of Washington	Lily Grimshaw '15	11	13	12	9	10	8	13	12	4	10	9	15	11	8	15	14	12	9	195
College of Charleston	Rebekah Schiff '16	13	10	9	11	12	14	16	15	11	14	7	13	15	10	12	12	16	11	221
Boston College	Carolyn Naughton '14	15	11	13	15	6	11	10	11	16	17	10	18	14	12	13	11	14	10	227
College of Charleston	Clerc Cooper '15	12	14	16	14	11	12	15	16	6	15	8	11	10	16	14	15	10	14	229
Yale University	Urska Kosir '15	16	15	15	DNF	14	10	11	7	15	13	12	14	13	13	11	13	13	12	236
U. S. Naval Academy	Mary Hall '15	14	12	14	13	15	15	8	10	14	12	OCS	12	16	15	17	16	15	15	252
University of Minnesota	Alison Kent '16	17	17	17	16	17	16	18	17	18	16	11	16	18	17	16	18	DNS	DNS	303
Tulane University	Jessica Oswalt '16	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	17	18	17	18	16	17	17	RAF	18	17	DNS	DNS	326

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Erika Reineke '17	Boston College Eagles 2	18/18	3.51	6.01	+2.49	91st → 99th	19.8	1%	2.7 / 6.1
2	Arielle Delisser '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	18/18	2.54	4.26	+1.71	66th → 98th	14.0	<1%	3.8 / 8.6
3	Christina Frost '16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	18/18	1.92	3.68	+1.76	48th → 93rd	15.1	<1%	5.2 / 10.4
4	Sky Adams '14	Brown University	18/18	2.35	3.64	+1.28	60th → 93rd	8.8	2%	5.3 / 9.2
5	Molly Mckinney '14	Stanford University Red	18/18	2.41	3.26	+0.84	61st → 86th	4.1	6%	5.9 / 9.0
6	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	2.43	3.29	+0.86	62nd → 86th	4.2	7%	6.1 / 9.0
7	Sarah Mace '14	Stanford University Cardinal	18/18	2.49	3.13	+0.64	63rd → 84th	2.5	18%	6.4 / 8.8
8	Catherine Shanahan '15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18/18	2.32	2.85	+0.53	60th → 78th	1.8	21%	7.6 / 9.2
9	Brooke Lyon '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	2.07	2.83	+0.76	54th → 77th	3.5	16%	7.9 / 10.0
10	Hanna Vincent '14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	18/18	2.21	2.15	−0.06	58th → 56th	0.0	73%	10.7 / 9.5
11	Lily Grimshaw '15	University of Washington	18/18	1.63	2.23	+0.60	40th → 58th	2.4	43%	10.8 / 11.2
12	Rebekah Schiff '16	College of Charleston Cougars 2	18/18	1.96	1.80	−0.16	50th → 44th	0.2	80%	12.3 / 10.2
13	Carolyn Naughton '14	Boston College Eagles 1	18/18	2.11	1.53	−0.58	55th → 38th	2.5	93%	12.6 / 9.8
14	Clerc Cooper '15	College of Charleston Cougars 1	18/18	2.51	1.59	−0.92	64th → 39th	7.3	94%	12.7 / 8.8
15	Urska Kosir '15	Yale University	18/18	2.51	1.71	−0.80	64th → 42nd	5.3	96%	13.1 / 8.8
16	Mary Hall '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	2.87	1.20	−1.66	78th → 28th	24.7	>99%	14.0 / 7.8
17	Alison Kent '16	University of Minnesota	18/18	1.39	-0.72	−2.11	34th → 1st	16.1	>99%	16.8 / 11.7
18	Jessica Oswalt '16	Tulane University	18/18	0.92	0.13	−0.79	21st → 8th	1.8	>99%	18.1 / 12.9

Conditions — 11/08/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 11.9 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (283°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1013.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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