Salt Pond Invite

HostRhode Island
Date09/28/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Promotional
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles 1	148
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	183
3	University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	189
4	Brown University	Bears	193
5	Boston College	Eagles 2	197
6	Northeastern University	Huskies	226
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	243
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	275
9	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	408

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles 2 A	2	2	1	6	3	8	5	9	2	1	11	1	51	Henry Dumke '17 Emily Vasiliou '16
Boston College	Eagles 1 A	6	1	OCS	1	7	7	6	1	8	4	1	2	63	Maxwell Simmons '17 Emily Schalka '15
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 A	1	10	11	10	1	1	3	3	6	10	4	11	71	Patrick Penwell '16 Richard Wilkinson '17
Brown University	Bears A	17	5	10	3	9	3	1	8	1	8	10	4	79	Timothy Harding '15 [1-8] Emmett Weeks '14 [9-12] Katherine Sudol '16 [1-8] Olivia Lord '17 [9-12]
Boston College	Eagles 1 B	11	12	3	11	15	6	2	2	12	5	3	3	85	Marcos Darcy '16 Caroline Drury '14
Northeastern University	Huskies A	5	3	6	16	2	11	14	4	10	2	5	10	88	Becker Awqatty '14 Linnea Goldstein '16
Roger Williams University	Hawks B	10	4	2	2	4	4	12	11	11	9	6	15	90	James Kennedy '17 Nicole Sikowitz '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears A	8	13	5	4	10	2	9	6	17	3	8	6	91	Bradley Brown '15 [1-12] Joshua Moan '15 [1-8] Daniel Winter '16 [9-12]
Roger Williams University	Hawks A	7	7	4	9	8	12	13	5	5	11	7	5	93	Scott Booth '16 Shanna Savignano '15
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 A	3	9	15	12	12	5	7	17	3	7	9	13	112	Mackenzie Needham '15 [1-12] Sarah Leonard '17 [1-8] Conor O'Neil '15 [9-12]
Brown University	Bears B	9	8	8	5	5	14	15	12	16	13	2	7	114	Alexandra Swanson '16 [1-8, 10, 12] Marina Cano '17 [9, 11] Haley Carter '17 [1-8] Alexandra Swanson '16 [9, 11] Marina Cano '17 [10, 12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 B	4	14	14	15	6	9	8	7	4	12	16	9	118	Camden Tougas '17 Marisa Decollibus '17
Northeastern University	Huskies B	13	6	9	14	11	13	11	14	13	6	14	14	138	Tasha Greenwood '15 Emily Browning '16
Boston College	Eagles 2 B	16	17	7	8	13	15	17	10	9	14	12	8	146	Allison Ferraris '17 Katherine Wysocki '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears B	15	11	12	13	16	17	4	13	7	17	15	12	152	Luis Marban '17 Cyrus Unvala '14
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 B	12	15	13	7	17	10	16	15	14	15	13	16	163	Samuel Waterman '17 Courtney Bombardier '16
Salve Regina University	Seahawks A	14	16	16	17	14	16	10	16	15	16	17	17	184	Matthew Miranda '17 Hayden Maguire '16
Salve Regina University	Seahawks B	18	18	17	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	224	Tasso Torquato '17 Mara Terchunian '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Boston College Eagles 1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Boston College Eagles 2	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Brown University Bears	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17
Northeastern University Huskies	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Roger Williams University Hawks	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Salve Regina University Seahawks	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Boston College Eagles 1	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
Boston College Eagles 2	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Brown University Bears	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Northeastern University Huskies	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
Roger Williams University Hawks	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Maxwell Simmons '17	Emily Schalka '15
Eagles 1	Marcos Darcy '16	Caroline Drury '14
Boston College	Henry Dumke '17	Emily Vasiliou '16
Eagles 2	Allison Ferraris '17	Katherine Wysocki '15
Brown University	Timothy Harding '15 [1-8] Emmett Weeks '14 [9-12]	Katherine Sudol '16 [1-8] Olivia Lord '17 [9-12]
Bears	Alexandra Swanson '16 [1-8, 10, 12] Marina Cano '17 [9, 11]	Haley Carter '17 [1-8] Alexandra Swanson '16 [9, 11] Marina Cano '17 [10, 12]
Northeastern University	Becker Awqatty '14	Linnea Goldstein '16
Huskies	Tasha Greenwood '15	Emily Browning '16
Roger Williams University	Scott Booth '16	Shanna Savignano '15
Hawks	James Kennedy '17	Nicole Sikowitz '15
Salve Regina University	Matthew Miranda '17	Hayden Maguire '16
Seahawks	Tasso Torquato '17	Mara Terchunian '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bradley Brown '15 [1-12]	Joshua Moan '15 [1-8] Daniel Winter '16 [9-12]
Bears	Luis Marban '17	Cyrus Unvala '14
University of Rhode Island	Patrick Penwell '16	Richard Wilkinson '17
Rams 1	Camden Tougas '17	Marisa Decollibus '17
University of Rhode Island	Mackenzie Needham '15 [1-12]	Sarah Leonard '17 [1-8] Conor O'Neil '15 [9-12]
Rams 2	Samuel Waterman '17	Courtney Bombardier '16

Conditions — 09/28/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1025.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.5 kn

avg · max 6.0 kn

Gusts to 14.0 kn

From ENE (58°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1025.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn · E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Rhode Island: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.00

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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