Boston College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.07 (fleet 2.86) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–4 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 9–2 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 16–4 against 12.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.57 | 3.79 | 9–2 | 7.0 | +1.22 | 1.7 | 13% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.40 | 3.57 | 7–2 | 5.1 | +1.16 | 1.5 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series 3 Spring 2016 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 3.04 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 82% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Crew | B | 3 | 4.7 | — |
| Central Series, Savin Hill | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.2 | 3.03 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.7 | 2.75 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.0 | 2.10 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.1 | 2.36 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.2 | 2.40 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 2.31 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 8.0 | — |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.1 | 1.02 |
| BC Central Series | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.0 | 2.12 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series #2 @ BU | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.3 | 1.27 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.4 | 2.45 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.5 | 1.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
