University of Vermont '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.56) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 86–106 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 23–27 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 24–23 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 23–36 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (127 matches) the record is 63–64 against 53.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+9.2). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.49 | 3.48 | 7–10 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.52 | 3.32 | 8–7 | 8.6 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.39 | 4.35 | 8–10 | 4.8 | +0.96 | 2.3 | 6% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.58 | 3.70 | 7–4 | 6.7 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.36 | 2.45 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −0.90 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.23 | 4.56 | 9–6 | 5.2 | +1.33 | 3.6 | 2% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.29 | 2.64 | 5–11 | 7.2 | −0.66 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 4.18 | 6–2 | 4.9 | +0.72 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 4.32 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +0.83 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 4.33 | 6–5 | 3.9 | +1.02 | 1.6 | 12% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.06 | 4.32 | 3–5 | 1.3 | +1.26 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.7 | 3.78 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.8 | 2.74 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 3.9 | 4.57 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.8 | 3.81 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.4 | 2.93 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 4.8 | 3.61 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 8.2 | 3.33 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.6 | 2.89 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 7.8 | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.5 | 3.17 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.2 | 2.60 |
| Pen Bay Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.11 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 19 | 7.4 | 3.22 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | 2.78 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.3 | 3.66 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 4.52 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.6 | 2.58 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 2.21 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.4 | 2.37 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.0 | 2.80 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.1 | 2.80 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Dave Perry | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.4 | 2.87 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.1 | 2.42 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 5.7 | 3.10 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.8 | 2.91 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 20 | 4.2 | 2.29 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 0.64 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
