Navigate

Central Series 4

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 76
2 Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University 89
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 103
4 Boston University Boston University Terriers 115
5 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 127
6 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 144
7 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 186
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University B 1 2 2 7 4 2 4 1 23 Dan Nickerson '15
Elizabeth Lynch '12
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs A 2 7 1 4 9 6 1 2 32 Rob Struckett '12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 7 3 4 1 8 7 2 5 37 T. Max Bulger '13
Katrina Miaoulis '15
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 3 1 7 2 12 3 3 8 39 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15
Victor Ansart '14
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 4 4 9 3 1 1 11 10 43 Elizabeth Glivinski '14
Keeton Leisure '14
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 6 10 8 8 2 5 8 3 50 Michael Booker '15
Adriana Kopp '12
Tufts University Tufts University Tufts University A 11 6 11 6 5 8 6 13 66 Cameron Barclift '14
Mara Rettig '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals A 5 9 12 12 3 10 12 4 67 Angus Page '12
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs B 9 11 5 5 11 13 10 7 71 Max Nickbarg '14
Margot Benedict '12
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 8 8 10 11 10 4 9 12 72 Erica Lush '14
Rebecca Bar '12
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners A 10 12 3 9 6 11 13 11 75 Tyler Nemsdale '14
Rinchen Harrison '15
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals B 12 13 6 13 7 12 5 9 77 Brooke Baker '13
Maritza Ebling '12
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 14 5 13 10 13 9 7 6 77
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners B 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 111 John Amendola '15
Alison Mitchell '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers11223344
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners221114141313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos33445566
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University44332211
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts55667788
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals66554433
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs7788991010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers88776655
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners99101011111212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos1010998877
Tufts UniversityTufts University Tufts University1111121213131414
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts12121111101099
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals131314141122
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs1414131312121111

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 88%  ·  Pressure 1003.4 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity88% Pressure1003.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn · NE 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →