Boston University '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 (fleet 2.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–15 (6%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 1–15 against 1.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 2.23 | 1.96 | 1–15 | 1.3 | −0.27 | 0.1 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy @ SRU | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.0 | 2.22 |
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.7 | 2.75 |
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 15% | — |
| Reed Trophy / NEISA Women's Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.5 | 2.74 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.5 | 3.17 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.2 | 3.06 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.3 | 3.00 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.0 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.3 | 2.65 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.1 | 2.64 |
| Toni Deutsch Trophy (women's) Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.4 | 2.36 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 3.44 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 1.83 |
| Mid-week Firefly #2 | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.7 | 2.33 |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 2.24 |
| Bowdoin Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.3 | 1.39 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.2 | 2.67 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.3 | 1.04 |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.2 | 1.54 |
| BU President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.9 | 2.37 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 2.31 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.91 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.0 | 2.07 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | 1.32 |
| Stu Nelson Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.6 | 2.29 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.6 | 2.49 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.4 | 2.91 |
| Connecticut College Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.3 | 1.27 |
| 2012 Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 3.12 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.6 | 1.81 |
| Southern Series Two | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.7 | 2.25 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 3.32 |
| NEISA Women's Championship, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.1 | 2.64 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.9 | 2.20 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.5 | 1.26 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.9 | 2.35 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 25 | 8.0 | 1.57 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | 2.22 |
| Central Series 4 | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 1.81 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.0 | 1.16 |
| Women's Emily Wick/Sloop Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.6 | 1.17 |
| Reed Trophy, Women's New England Ch Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 11.1 | 0.87 |
| BU Bridge Invitational, Central Ser | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.9 | 0.40 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Emily Wick/Sloop Shrew Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.8 | 1.62 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
