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Midweek Tech Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 28 28
2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 1 30 30
3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 2 31 31
4 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 33 33
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 40 40
6 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 57 57
7 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 57 57
8 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 58 58
9 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 63 63
10 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 65 65
11 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 83 83
12 Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 88 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbalaya 4 2 1 6 9 1 3 2 28 James Altreuter '11
Elizabeth Lynch '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 1 9 5 2 1 7 2 1 3 30 Steven Drapcho '13
Hannah Sparkman '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 2 5 4 3 3 1 4 4 7 31 Tevis Nichols '12
Christie Lin '11
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 1 11 1 4 5 6 3 2 1 33 Anna Morton '13
Ann Stallings '12
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 3 9 7 5 6 5 4 40 Colin Patterson '11
Artemis Sapountzi '12
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2 6 12 10 4 9 6 8 57 Neil Forrester '12
Teresa Gblin '11
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers 12 8 5 4 8 7 7 6 57 Mark Van De Loo '13
Roberto Melã©Ndez '12
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 8 11 8 2 2 10 8 9 58
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 1 3 9 6 8 3 8 DNS DNS 63 Sam Millham '13
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 1 6 7 10 11 12 5 9 5 65 Sean Mcmullen '12
Olin Nelson '13
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 2 10 10 7 9 10 11 DNS DNS 83 Nick Waldo '13
Lauren Tiedemann '13
Wellesley College Wellesley College Blue 2 7 12 11 12 11 12 10 DNS 88
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2008 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 122222222
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson 21515151515151515
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers66666666
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 11212121212121212
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 277777777
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers1414141414141414
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 188888888
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies 21616161616161616
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbalaya55555555
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos11111111
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 144444444
Wellesley CollegeWellesley College Blue 21010101010101010

Conditions — 04/17/2010 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1007.5 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 42°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From ENE (63°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.4 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1007.5 hPa Rain0.21 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.49 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →