Massachusetts Institute of Technology '14
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.71 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 28 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.48 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 58–47 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 50–37 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 8–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (92 matches) the record is 50–42 against 49.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.49 | 3.89 | 4–7 | 3.2 | +0.40 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.42 | 3.38 | 10–12 | 10.2 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 3.47 | 3.69 | 16–7 | 15.1 | +0.22 | 0.1 | 42% |
| 2014-03-15 | Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.54 | 2.94 | 9–6 | 10.6 | −0.60 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 3.11 | 4.06 | 11–5 | 8.1 | +0.94 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.33 | 0.33 | 0–5 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 3.26 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 36% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 3.55 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.9 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.0 | 3.55 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 9.3 | 3.60 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.6 | 3.96 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 3.44 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 13.8 | 2.83 |
| Atlantic Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.5 | 3.09 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 3.88 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 3.53 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 12 | 8.1 | 3.15 |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.4 | 3.50 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 17 | 5.7 | 3.47 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.0 | 4.50 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.8 | 2.81 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 3.07 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 18 | 7.3 | 3.33 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 7.7 | 2.96 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 3.74 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.0 | 3.26 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 9.1 | 2.49 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 10 | 10.0 | 2.50 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Penbay Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.1 | 1.91 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 2.88 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 9.0 | 2.82 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 8.4 | 3.12 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 7 | 12.6 | — |
| Commonwealth Series | Skipper | A | 18 | 3.9 | 2.83 |
| Atlantic Coast Dinghies | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.7 | 0.36 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.6 | 2.57 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 3.42 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.0 | 3.01 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 8 | 8.4 | 2.15 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.3 | 2.75 |
| Oberg Trophy- Greater Boston | Skipper | C | 12 | 6.8 | 2.53 |
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.4 | 2.48 |
| Men's Ne Singlehanded Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.9 | 1.71 |
| Freshmen | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 2.56 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
