NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs

HostYale
Date09/28/2013
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	36
2	Yale University	Joseph Kiss '17	38
3	Harvard University	Juan Perdomo '17	52
4	University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	59
5	Harvard University	Marek Zaleski '16	78
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Avery Fanning '16	78
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	David Alfonso '14	87
8	Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	89
9	Bowdoin College	Jack Mcguire '17	96
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dylan Finneran '15	121
11	Brown University	Reid Secondo '16	121
12	Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	126
13	Brown University	James Barry '16	127
14	Boston College	Domenic Bove '15	131
15	Bowdoin College	Matthew Lyons '17	137
16	Tufts University	Rolfe Glover '16	139
17	Tufts University	James Beatty '17	144
18	Boston College	Ryan Schmitz '15	146
19	Salve Regina University	Robert Lippincott '14	160
20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Joseph Paggi '16	175
21	Brown University	Macklin Fluehr '17	189
22	Salve Regina University	Pierce Conlin '15	220
23	Yale University	Eric Anderson '16	224
24	Northeastern University	Peter Christensen '18	236
25	Sacred Heart University	David Tampellini '17	253
26	Sacred Heart University	Brian Reilly '16	257

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	9	5	4	3	6	3	2	1	1	2	36
Yale University	Joseph Kiss '17	1	1	1	1	7	6	1	8	2	10	38
Harvard University	Juan Perdomo '17	2	2	6	2	8	11	8	5	7	1	52
University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	3	4	12	12	3	8	5	3	3	6	59
Harvard University	Marek Zaleski '16	13	7	8	8	1	10	12	7	4	8	78
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Avery Fanning '16	19	3	2	17	5	1	6	2	8	15	78
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	David Alfonso '14	15	10	7	4	16	2	3	14	11	5	87
Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	12	6	3	DSQ	12	7	7	6	5	4	89
Bowdoin College	Jack Mcguire '17	10	13	10	14	4	5	4	9	18	9	96
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Dylan Finneran '15	7	9	11	10	13	13	14	17	13	14	121
Brown University	Reid Secondo '16	14	8	16	6	11	15	10	19	19	3	121
Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	5	14	18	20	9	12	15	12	10	11	126
Brown University	James Barry '16	21	12	15	7	17	20	9	10	9	7	127
Boston College	Domenic Bove '15	4	15	9	5	23	19	17	16	6	17	131
Bowdoin College	Matthew Lyons '17	17	11	5	19	18	16	11	13	14	13	137
Tufts University	Rolfe Glover '16	20	16	17	9	10	4	18	15	12	18	139
Tufts University	James Beatty '17	16	17	13	15	15	17	19	4	16	12	144
Boston College	Ryan Schmitz '15	6	18	19	13	2	21	13	20	15	19	146
Salve Regina University	Robert Lippincott '14	11	21	14	18	22	9	21	11	17	16	160
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Joseph Paggi '16	8	19	20	16	21	14	16	18	21	22	175
Brown University	Macklin Fluehr '17	18	20	22	11	19	18	20	21	20	20	189
Salve Regina University	Pierce Conlin '15	23	23	21	22	20	23	23	22	22	21	220
Yale University	Eric Anderson '16	22	22	23	21	14	22	22	24	DNS	DNS	224
Northeastern University	Peter Christensen '18	24	24	24	23	24	24	24	23	23	23	236
Sacred Heart University	David Tampellini '17	25	25	25	24	25	DNF	25	26	24	DNS	253
Sacred Heart University	Brian Reilly '16	26	26	26	25	26	25	26	25	25	DNS	257

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 26 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Ian Barrows '17	Yale University Bulldogs 2	10/10	3.28	4.84	+1.56	86th → 99th	6.6	3%	3.6 / 9.1
2	Joseph Kiss '17	Yale University Elis	10/10	2.47	4.70	+2.23	62nd → 99th	12.1	1%	3.8 / 11.9
3	Juan Perdomo '17	Harvard University Crimson	10/10	3.18	4.14	+0.96	85th → 97th	2.9	11%	5.2 / 9.5
4	Michael Zonnenberg '15	University of Vermont	10/10	2.83	3.89	+1.06	77th → 94th	3.5	5%	5.9 / 10.5
5	Avery Fanning '16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1	10/10	2.48	3.07	+0.59	62nd → 83rd	1.2	15%	7.8 / 11.9
5	Marek Zaleski '16	Harvard University Cantabs	10/10	2.66	3.44	+0.78	71st → 89th	2.1	19%	7.8 / 11.3
7	David Alfonso '14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers	10/10	2.77	3.10	+0.33	74th → 83rd	0.4	31%	8.7 / 10.8
8	Alp Rodopman '17	Tufts University Jumbos	10/10	2.77	3.69	+0.92	74th → 93rd	2.5	31%	8.9 / 11.0
9	Jack Mcguire '17	Bowdoin College Pines	10/10	2.44	2.92	+0.48	62nd → 79th	0.8	29%	9.6 / 12.0
10	Dylan Finneran '15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2	10/10	1.92	2.61	+0.69	48th → 68th	1.7	32%	12.1 / 13.9
10	Reid Secondo '16	Brown University Bears 3	10/10	1.71	2.43	+0.72	43rd → 62nd	1.8	26%	12.1 / 14.7
12	Lucas Adams '15	Brown University Bears 1	10/10	2.86	2.31	−0.55	78th → 60th	1.4	79%	12.6 / 10.3
13	James Barry '16	Brown University Bears 2	10/10	2.34	2.27	−0.07	60th → 59th	0.0	56%	12.7 / 12.3
14	Domenic Bove '15	Boston College Eagles 1	10/10	2.53	2.02	−0.51	66th → 53rd	1.1	66%	13.1 / 11.7
15	Matthew Lyons '17	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10/10	1.97	2.26	+0.30	51st → 59th	0.3	50%	13.7 / 13.7
16	Rolfe Glover '16	Tufts University Tufts University	10/10	1.62	2.16	+0.54	40th → 56th	1.1	39%	13.9 / 14.9
17	James Beatty '17	Tufts University Jumbalaya	10/10	2.17	2.13	−0.04	57th → 56th	0.0	65%	14.4 / 13.0
18	Ryan Schmitz '15	Boston College Eagles 2	10/10	2.19	1.84	−0.35	58th → 46th	0.5	67%	14.6 / 12.9
19	Robert Lippincott '14	Salve Regina University Seahawks	10/10	1.94	1.71	−0.23	50th → 43rd	0.2	70%	16.0 / 14.0
20	Joseph Paggi '16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	10/10	2.21	1.34	−0.87	58th → 31st	3.7	88%	17.5 / 12.9
21	Macklin Fluehr '17	Brown University Bears 4	10/10	1.32	1.32	+0.01	30th → 31st	0.0	76%	18.9 / 16.0
22	Pierce Conlin '15	Salve Regina University Seahawks B: Top-guns	10/10	0.99	0.58	−0.41	22nd → 15th	0.7	93%	22.0 / 17.1
23	Eric Anderson '16	Yale University Bulldogs 1	10/10	1.53	0.59	−0.94	38th → 15th	3.4	98%	22.4 / 15.3
24	Peter Christensen '18	Northeastern University	10/10	1.10	-0.37	−1.47	25th → 3rd	9.5	99%	23.6 / 16.7
25	David Tampellini '17	Sacred Heart University Pioneers 2	10/10	-0.75	-0.93	−0.17	1st → 1st	0.1	95%	25.3 / 22.1
26	Brian Reilly '16	Sacred Heart University Pioneers 1	10/10	-0.55	-3.91	−3.37	2nd → 1st	12.0	99%	25.7 / 21.6

Conditions — 09/28/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1025.9 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.8 kn

avg · max 5.8 kn

Gusts to 14.6 kn

From ENE (57°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1025.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Yale — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Yale in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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