Men's Ne Singlehanded

HostRoger Williams
Date10/10/2009
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Thomas Barrows '10	55
2	Brown University	Fred Strammer '11	65
3	Roger Williams University	Cy Thompson '11	77
4	Roger Williams University	Luke Lawrence '13	98
5	Tufts University	Andrew Criezis '10	145
6	Brown University	Tommy Fink '13	158
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Philip Crain '13	176
8	Brown University	Colin Smith '13	186
9	Boston University	Ryan Pesch '12	189
10	Providence College	Ian Sutherland '12	206
11	Boston University	Solomon Tarlin '17	236
12	Connecticut College	Brendan Heussler '12	241
13	Tufts University	Albert Nichols '13	250
14	Dartmouth College	Bo Mcclatchy '13	254
15	Tufts University	William Hutchings '13	255
16	Tufts University	James Altreuter '11	269
17	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	David Alfonso '14	273
18	Dartmouth College	Charlie Knape '10	284
19	Salve Regina University	Robert Keller '11	309
20	Boston College	Ian Donahue '12	340
21	Roger Williams University	Ryan Powell '17	346
22	Dartmouth College	Timothy Scanlon '12	405

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	R19	TOT
Yale University	Thomas Barrows '10	2	1	5	3	4	1	1	2	3	3	2	5	8	4	2	3	3	1	2	55
Brown University	Fred Strammer '11	3	11	1	5	3	3	3	5	1	6	4	1	6	1	1	6	2	2	1	65
Roger Williams University	Cy Thompson '11	4	3	3	2	2	4	7	4	4	10	1	6	2	3	3	1	6	3	9	77
Roger Williams University	Luke Lawrence '13	1	9	6	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	3	17	5	6	8	4	1	5	RAF	98
Tufts University	Andrew Criezis '10	9	7	4	6	8	7	9	14	12	12	8	11	1	2	10	9	4	9	3	145
Brown University	Tommy Fink '13	10	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	10	2	6	2	3	17	21	8	9	10	16	158
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Philip Crain '13	19	6	12	18	12	9	5	8	9	4	11	8	10	9	4	2	16	6	8	176
Brown University	Colin Smith '13	11	15	13	16	5	11	8	10	11	5	5	7	17	8	9	5	12	13	5	186
Boston University	Ryan Pesch '12	17	17	7	4	9	6	6	6	5	8	10	3	14	18	11	12	14	16	6	189
Providence College	Ian Sutherland '12	12	2	11	10	15	16	10	15	7	9	12	10	9	10	5	15	13	18	7	206
Boston University	Solomon Tarlin '17	5	4	2	13	16	17	14	9	18	17	15	19	16	7	14	13	17	7	13	236
Connecticut College	Brendan Heussler '12	7	20	16	19	10	8	16	16	17	16	13	18	11	14	12	11	5	8	4	241
Tufts University	Albert Nichols '13	14	12	14	12	13	12	15	17	6	7	14	9	15	21	19	14	7	14	15	250
Dartmouth College	Bo Mcclatchy '13	13	14	15	15	7	20	12	11	14	15	18	16	7	5	18	7	15	15	17	254
Tufts University	William Hutchings '13	6	8	8	14	18	18	21	18	16	11	20	15	13	11	6	10	11	12	19	255
Tufts University	James Altreuter '11	20	13	17	8	14	RAF	19	12	13	19	7	14	4	19	17	17	8	11	14	269
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	David Alfonso '14	21	RAF	10	20	20	10	17	7	8	14	19	4	19	13	16	18	19	4	11	273
Dartmouth College	Charlie Knape '10	8	5	20	11	21	15	18	21	20	13	16	12	12	15	7	19	10	21	20	284
Salve Regina University	Robert Keller '11	16	19	21	9	11	13	20	20	19	18	17	13	20	12	13	21	18	17	12	309
Boston College	Ian Donahue '12	15	16	18	17	RAF	RDG	13	19	15	21	21	20	21	16	20	20	20	20	10	340
Roger Williams University	Ryan Powell '17	18	18	19	22	19	19	11	22	21	20	9	21	18	20	15	16	21	19	18	346
Dartmouth College	Timothy Scanlon '12	22	21	22	21	17	14	22	13	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	405

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 22 boats · 19 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Thomas Barrows '10	Yale University	19/19	3.08	4.81	+1.73	83rd → 99th	14.2	1%	2.9 / 8.0
2	Fred Strammer '11	Brown University Bears 1	19/19	2.55	4.45	+1.90	66th → 99th	17.3	1%	3.4 / 9.7
3	Cy Thompson '11	Roger Williams University Hawks 1	19/19	2.87	4.11	+1.25	78th → 96th	8.5	4%	4.1 / 8.6
4	Luke Lawrence '13	Roger Williams University Hawks 2	19/19	2.42	3.93	+1.51	62nd → 95th	11.1	4%	5.2 / 10.0
5	Andrew Criezis '10	Tufts University Jumbos 1	19/19	2.36	2.93	+0.57	60th → 79th	2.2	21%	7.6 / 10.2
6	Tommy Fink '13	Brown University Bears 2	19/19	2.27	2.45	+0.18	59th → 62nd	0.2	26%	8.3 / 10.5
7	Philip Crain '13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 1	19/19	2.14	2.47	+0.33	56th → 62nd	0.8	31%	9.3 / 10.9
8	Colin Smith '13	Brown University Bears 3	19/19	2.11	2.43	+0.31	56th → 62nd	0.7	32%	9.8 / 11.0
9	Ryan Pesch '12	Boston University Terriers 2	19/19	1.91	2.29	+0.39	48th → 59th	1.1	30%	9.9 / 11.6
10	Ian Sutherland '12	Providence College	19/19	1.73	2.20	+0.47	43rd → 58th	1.6	33%	10.8 / 12.2
11	Solomon Tarlin '17	Boston University Terriers 1	19/19	2.35	1.75	−0.60	60th → 43rd	3.2	76%	12.4 / 10.3
12	Brendan Heussler '12	Connecticut College	19/19	1.65	1.77	+0.12	41st → 43rd	0.1	51%	12.7 / 12.5
13	Albert Nichols '13	Tufts University Jumbos 3	19/19	1.52	1.70	+0.18	38th → 42nd	0.2	52%	13.2 / 12.9
14	Bo Mcclatchy '13	Dartmouth College Big Green 1	19/19	1.88	1.63	−0.26	47th → 40th	0.5	70%	13.4 / 11.7
15	William Hutchings '13	Tufts University Jumbos 2	19/19	2.00	1.49	−0.51	52nd → 37th	2.2	76%	13.4 / 11.3
16	James Altreuter '11	Tufts University Jumbos 4	19/19	1.37	1.61	+0.24	33rd → 40th	0.4	58%	14.2 / 13.4
17	David Alfonso '14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers 2	19/19	1.99	1.34	−0.65	51st → 31st	3.4	84%	14.4 / 11.3
18	Charlie Knape '10	Dartmouth College Big Green 3	19/19	1.11^u	0.99	−0.13	25th → 22nd	0.1	59%	14.9 / 14.2
19	Robert Keller '11	Salve Regina University	19/19	0.82	1.04	+0.23	18th → 24th	0.4	64%	16.3 / 15.1
20	Ryan Powell '17	Roger Williams University Hawks 3	19/19	1.82	0.24	−1.57	44th → 10th	20.5	99%	18.2 / 11.9
21	Ian Donahue '12	Boston College	19/19	1.55	0.52	−1.03	39th → 14th	7.5	98%	18.3 / 12.8
22	Timothy Scanlon '12	Dartmouth College Big Green 2	19/19	1.44	-0.36	−1.81	35th → 3rd	8.6	>99%	21.3 / 13.1

Conditions — 10/10/2009 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.5 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 22.9 kn

From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.9 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1008.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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