Dartmouth College '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.92 (fleet 4.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 63–81 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 4 | 16–29 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 38–36 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 7 graded regattas (118 matches) the record is 54–64 against 59.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.94 | 2.47 | 1–4 | 2.3 | −1.48 | 1.3 | 97% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 4.09 | 3.61 | 9–15 | 11.3 | −0.48 | 0.8 | 90% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.04 | 4.03 | 6–9 | 6.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.86 | 3.44 | 8–8 | 9.4 | −0.42 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.75 | 4.22 | 15–7 | 13.1 | +0.47 | 0.6 | 25% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.73 | 3.52 | 7–14 | 7.8 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.70 | 2.98 | 8–7 | 9.7 | −0.72 | 0.9 | 93% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
