St. Mary's College of Maryland '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.35 (fleet 3.24) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 62–33 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 28–13 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 34–20 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 28–13 against 25.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.06 | 3.24 | 6–7 | 5.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.37 | 6.37 | 3–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.19 | 4.09 | 14–3 | 11.9 | +0.90 | 1.3 | 16% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.38 | 3.47 | 5–3 | 4.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.4 | 3.25 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.6 | 3.24 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.0 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 3 | 8.7 | 2.76 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Top 9 Regatta | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.6 | 2.77 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 3.25 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.1 | 3.53 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 9.2 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 3.02 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 7.7 | 2.94 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.1 | 3.44 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 16.1 | 2.06 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard/ Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 6.4 | 2.73 |
| Charleston Spring Intersectional | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.9 | 2.84 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Top Nine Invitational | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.1 | 2.31 |
| South #1/ Senators Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 3.23 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.7 | 2.95 |
| Maisa Central Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 2.21 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.7 | 2.84 |
| HWS Intersectional | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.1 | 2.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
