University of Rhode Island '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.42 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 7 | Fall 2012 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.49 (fleet 3.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–77 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 12–13 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 12–21 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 4–2 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 25–41 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (130 matches) the record is 53–77 against 60.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.20 | 1.51 | 1–12 | 3.1 | −1.69 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 3.04 | 5.10 | 11–1 | 7.9 | +2.06 | 4.0 | 3% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 1.04 | 2–6 | 5.6 | −2.31 | 5.8 | >99% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.19 | 3.08 | 4–11 | 4.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.03 | 2.85 | 6–4 | 6.3 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.44 | 2.95 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.19 | 3.12 | 5–17 | 5.3 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 3.24 | 2.84 | 11–12 | 12.7 | −0.40 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2014-03-08 | TR Invite | skipper | 3.23 | 2.96 | 8–8 | 8.9 | −0.28 | 0.2 | 78% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 1.96 | 1–4 | 2.1 | −1.07 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.5 | 3.22 |
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 8% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.7 | 3.56 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.3 | 3.12 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.0 | 2.88 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.5 | 3.27 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.9 | 2.81 |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.8 | 3.13 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.1 | 4.31 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.7 | 3.48 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.0 | 3.98 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.1 | 3.38 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| TR Invite | Skipper | TR | 20 | 55% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 3.62 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 48% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.81 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 14.1 | 2.43 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 3.68 |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 4.42 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.3 | 3.69 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 4.52 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.0 | 3.66 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.1 | 2.49 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 3.29 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | 4.46 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.2 | 1.98 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 3.18 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.7 | 3.69 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.5 | 2.75 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.5 | 2.68 |
| Harmon Cup 2012 Keelboat | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.0 | -0.89 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.1 | 2.79 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.6 | 3.68 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.2 | 2.66 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.3 | 3.09 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.2 | 3.02 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Caleb Armstrong |  University of Vermont |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
