| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 9–3 |
| 3 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
University of Vermont | Catamounts | 3–9 |
| 5 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,654 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.311 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.38 ± 0.35: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Rhode Island Rams | 3 | 9.71 school +0.07 | Caleb Armstrong / Fiona Christie 3.04 Rachel Bryer / Hannah Scanlon 3.42 Matthew Coughlin / Kathryn Nota 2.98 | 66% | 11–1 (92%) | +3.1 |
| 2 | Connecticut College Camels | 2 | 9.84 school +0.09, home +0.20 | Walter Florio / Erin Smith 2.63 Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.38 Bryce Kopp / Albert Rodiger 3.47 | 69% | 9–3 (75%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Tufts University Jumbos | 1 | 10.15 school +0.18 | Scott Barbano / Ian Morgan 3.37 John Rolander / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.30 Casey Gowrie / Leah Fletcher 3.27 | 76% | 7–5 (58%) | −2.1 |
| 4 | University of Vermont Catamounts | 4 | 8.30 school −0.08 | William Crary / Sydney Connor 3.06 Amina Brown / Haley Mcmahon 2.92 Jan Kite-Powell / Caroline Duksta 2.25 | 35% | 3–9 (25%) | −1.2 |
| 5 | Northeastern University Huskies | 5 | 6.05 school +0.17 | Peter Christensen / Anne Wieland 2.17 Kurran Singh / Sofia Kirkman 2.05 Donal Ryan / Jacqueline Berlin | 4% | 0–12 (0%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Rhode Island | 9.71 | 11.77 | 11–1 | 7.9 | +2.06 | 4.0 | 3% |
| 2 | Connecticut College | 9.84 | 10.21 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 4 | University of Vermont | 8.30 | 7.36 | 3–9 | 4.2 | −0.95 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 3 | Tufts University | 10.15 | 9.12 | 7–5 | 9.1 | −1.04 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 5 | Northeastern University | 6.05 | 3.05 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Bryer | University of Rhode Island | 3.42 | 5.48 | 11–1 | 7.9 | +2.06 | 4.0 | 3% |
| Matthew Coughlin | University of Rhode Island | 2.98 | 5.04 | 11–1 | 7.9 | +2.06 | 4.0 | 3% |
| Walter Florio | Connecticut College | 2.63 | 3.00 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| Bryce Kopp | Connecticut College | 3.47 | 3.84 | 9–3 | 8.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| William Crary | University of Vermont | 3.06 | 2.11 | 3–9 | 4.2 | −0.95 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Amina Brown | University of Vermont | 2.92 | 1.97 | 3–9 | 4.2 | −0.95 | 0.8 | 94% |
| Scott Barbano | Tufts University | 3.37 | 2.34 | 7–5 | 9.1 | −1.04 | 1.6 | 97% |
| John Rolander | Tufts University | 3.30 | 2.27 | 7–5 | 9.1 | −1.04 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Casey Gowrie | Tufts University | 3.27 | 2.23 | 7–5 | 9.1 | −1.04 | 1.6 | 97% |
| Peter Christensen | Northeastern University | 2.17 | -0.83 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
| Kurran Singh | Northeastern University | 2.05 | -0.95 | 0–12 | 0.5 | ≤−3.00 | 0.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Rams | Camels | Jumbos | Catamounts | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 3–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Rams | Camels | Jumbos | Catamounts | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Rams | Camels | Jumbos | Catamounts | Huskies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Vermont Catamounts | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Camels | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Camels | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Camels | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Camels | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Catamounts | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Camels | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Catamounts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Camels | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Catamounts | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Catamounts | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
University of Rhode Island | Rams | Caleb Armstrong '16 Matthew Coughlin '16 Rachel Bryer '17 |
Fiona Christie '17 Kathryn Nota '19 Hannah Scanlon '18 |
|
Connecticut College | Camels | Bryce Kopp '16 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18 |
Albert Rodiger '18 Eliza Garry '17 Erin Smith '19 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Casey Gowrie '16 John Rolander '17 Scott Barbano '17 |
Leah Fletcher '17 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18 Ian Morgan '19 |
|
University of Vermont | Catamounts | Amina Brown '17 Jan Kite-Powell '19 William Crary '17 |
Haley Mcmahon '18 Caroline Duksta '19 Sydney Connor '18 |
|
Northeastern University | Huskies | Donal Ryan '19 Kurran Singh '19 Peter Christensen '18 |
Jacqueline Berlin '19 Sofia Kirkman '20 Anne Wieland '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
