University of Vermont '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 (fleet 3.42) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–90 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 15–19 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 4 | 23–42 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 0–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 4–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (132 matches) the record is 42–90 against 43.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-25 | Staake Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.29 | 3.31 | 8–12 | 7.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2017-03-18 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 3.28 | 3.68 | 7–7 | 6.0 | +0.39 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.06 | 3.44 | 1–12 | 0.7 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 2016-03-26 | Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | skipper | 3.06 | 2.11 | 3–9 | 4.2 | −0.95 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 2016-03-19 | The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.02 | 3.27 | 11–10 | 10.0 | +0.25 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2016-03-12 | Arctic Circle Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 2.50 | 8–11 | 8.4 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 0.04 | 0–16 | 3.9 | ≤−3.00 | 7.0 | >99% |
| 2014-03-29 | 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | skipper | 2.13 | 2.85 | 4–13 | 2.3 | +0.72 | 0.9 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Team Race Trophy | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Coed Championship/US Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.6 | 3.12 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.1 | 3.37 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.0 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.6 | 2.99 |
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.0 | 2.52 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.6 | 4.33 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 9.8 | 3.38 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 9.8 | 3.59 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 3.91 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.6 | 3.59 |
| 34th Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.2 | 3.31 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake Trophy NE Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 25% | — |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.6 | 3.08 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 8% | — |
| The Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 52% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.8 | 3.42 |
| Arctic Circle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 42% | — |
| 81st Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.8 | 3.01 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.2 | 2.49 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.6 | 2.77 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 13.3 | 2.59 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 0% | — |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.9 | 3.72 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.22 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 3.06 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.4 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.0 | 3.41 |
| Admiral Alymers | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.1 | 3.24 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.3 | 2.68 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 12 | 16.9 | 1.14 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.0 | 2.69 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.7 | 2.40 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.6 | 2.39 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | 2.71 |
| 2nd Barque Eagle Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 24% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 2.80 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.3 | 2.89 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 3.23 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 12.9 | 1.94 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
