Southern New England Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/18/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–1
2	Connecticut College	Camels	13–1
3	Brown University	Bears	9–5
4	University of Vermont	Catamounts	7–7
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	6–8
6	Boston College	Eagles	5–9
7	Boston University	Terriers	3–11
8	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,725 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 56 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.359 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.28: an orderly event, more orderly than 90% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.62 school +0.07	Martim Anderson / Rebecca Anderson 3.55 Mackenzie Bryan / Jennifer Agell 3.42 Stewart Draheim / Michael Mcbrien 3.55	79%	13–1 (93%)	+1.9
2	Connecticut College Camels	2	10.31 school +0.12, home +0.24	Hugh Macgillivray / Eliza Garry 3.64 Walter Florio / Erin Smith 2.81 Carter Pemberton / Albert Rodiger 3.46	73%	13–1 (93%)	+2.8
3	Brown University Bears	4	9.59 school +0.18	Patrick Shanahan / Emily Ito 3.46 Quinn Andersen / Marina Cano 2.92 Sam Alexander / Rachel Gutman 2.94 5–3 Sam Alexander / Olivia Lord 3.08 4–2	57%	9–5 (64%)	+1.0
4	University of Vermont Catamounts	6	8.93 school −0.16	William Crary / Sydney Connor 3.28 Amina Brown / Brittney Manning 3.03 Jan Kite-Powell / Haley Mcmahon 2.72	43%	7–7 (50%)	+1.0
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	9.47	Andy Reiter / Isabelle Trimble 3.28 Massimo Mazzolini / Albert Kraus 2.62 Jack Marshall / Maggie Kelly 3.40	55%	6–8 (43%)	−1.7
6	Boston College Eagles	3	9.83 school +0.31	Wade Waddell / Emma Perry 3.38 Peter Lynn / Caroline Downey 3.07 Colin Brego / Elizabeth Matheson 3–9 Griffin Elliott / Elizabeth Matheson 2–0	62%	5–9 (36%)	−3.8
7	Boston University Terriers	7	8.18 school −0.22	Robby Gearon / Lexi Pline 3.11 Alex Moreno / Emily Walker Reed Lorimer / Hannah Davis 2.57	28%	3–11 (21%)	−1.0
8	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	8	5.80	Andreas Adam / Macy Blakeley Arthur Libby / Skye Miller 2.15 Aidan Molesky / Timothy Montera	3%	0–14 (0%)	−0.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Connecticut College	10.31	12.07	13–1	10.2	+1.76	3.0	6%
1	Roger Williams University	10.62	11.95	13–1	11.1	+1.33	1.6	16%
3	Brown University	9.59	9.99	9–5	8.0	+0.40	0.3	37%
4	University of Vermont	8.93	9.32	7–7	6.0	+0.39	0.3	36%
7	Boston University	8.18	7.56	3–11	4.0	−0.62	0.4	87%
5	Georgetown University	9.47	8.81	6–8	7.7	−0.66	0.8	91%
6	Boston College	9.83	8.33	5–9	8.8	−1.50	3.9	>99%
8	SUNY Maritime College	5.80	2.80	0–14	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Walter Florio	Connecticut College	2.81	4.57	13–1	10.2	+1.76	3.0	6%
Martim Anderson	Roger Williams University	3.55	4.88	13–1	11.1	+1.33	1.6	16%
William Crary	University of Vermont	3.28	3.68	7–7	6.0	+0.39	0.3	36%
Amina Brown	University of Vermont	3.03	3.43	7–7	6.0	+0.39	0.3	36%
Alex Moreno	Boston University	2.54	1.93	3–11	4.0	−0.62	0.4	87%
Andy Reiter	Georgetown University	3.28	2.62	6–8	7.7	−0.66	0.8	91%
Massimo Mazzolini	Georgetown University	2.62	1.96	6–8	7.7	−0.66	0.8	91%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.40	2.74	6–8	7.7	−0.66	0.8	91%
Wade Waddell	Boston College	3.38	1.88	5–9	8.8	−1.50	3.9	>99%
Andreas Adam	SUNY Maritime College	1.97	-1.03	0–14	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Arthur Libby	SUNY Maritime College	2.15	-0.85	0–14	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Aidan Molesky	SUNY Maritime College	1.59	-1.41	0–14	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	2	Georgetown University	Boston University	79%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Boston College	70%
1	4	University of Vermont	Brown University	35%	upset
1	5	Connecticut College	Boston University	90%
1	6	Boston College	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	7	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	61%
1	8	Roger Williams University	Brown University	75%
1	9	Boston College	Boston University	84%
1	10	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	80%
1	11	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
1	12	Brown University	Georgetown University	53%
1	13	University of Vermont	Boston College	29%	upset
1	14	Roger Williams University	Boston University	92%
1	15	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	70%
1	16	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	85%
1	18	Georgetown University	Boston College	41%	upset
1	19	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	92%
1	20	Connecticut College	Brown University	65%
1	21	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	76%
1	22	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	96%
1	23	Connecticut College	Boston College	62%
1	24	Brown University	Boston University	82%
1	25	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
1	26	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	42%	upset
1	27	University of Vermont	Boston University	68%
1	28	Brown University	Boston College	43%	upset
2	29	Connecticut College	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	30	Boston University	Georgetown University	21%	upset
2	31	Roger Williams University	Boston College	69%
2	32	Brown University	University of Vermont	65%
2	33	Connecticut College	Boston University	89%
2	34	Boston College	SUNY Maritime College	98%
2	35	Georgetown University	University of Vermont	64%
2	36	Roger Williams University	Brown University	75%
2	37	Boston College	Boston University	83%
2	38	Connecticut College	University of Vermont	80%
2	39	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	99%
2	40	Brown University	Georgetown University	51%
2	41	University of Vermont	Boston College	29%	upset
2	42	Roger Williams University	Boston University	92%
2	43	Connecticut College	Georgetown University	69%
2	44	Brown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
2	45	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	84%
2	46	Boston College	Georgetown University	58%
2	47	Boston University	SUNY Maritime College	92%
2	48	Connecticut College	Brown University	66%
2	49	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	75%
2	50	University of Vermont	SUNY Maritime College	96%
2	51	Connecticut College	Boston College	61%
2	52	Brown University	Boston University	81%
2	53	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	98%
2	54	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	57%
2	55	University of Vermont	Boston University	67%
2	56	Brown University	Boston College	42%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Hoyas	Eagles	Terriers	Privateers
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	4–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Hoyas	Eagles	Terriers	Privateers
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Boston University Terriers	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
3	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
4	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
5	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
6	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
7	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
8	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
9	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
10	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
11	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
12	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
13	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
14	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
15	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
16	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
17	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
19	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
20	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
21	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
22	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
23	Camels	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
24	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
25	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
26	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6
27	Catamounts	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
28	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
30	Terriers	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
32	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
33	Camels	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
34	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
35	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
37	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
38	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
39	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
40	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
41	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
42	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
43	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
45	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
46	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
47	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
48	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
49	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
50	Catamounts	1-3-6	def.	Privateers	2-4-5
51	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
52	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
53	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
54	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
55	Catamounts	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
56	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Mackenzie Bryan '18 Martim Anderson '18 Stewart Draheim '16	Jennifer Agell '19 Rebecca Anderson '18 Michael Mcbrien '18
Connecticut College	Camels	Carter Pemberton '20 Hugh Macgillivray '18 Walter Florio '18	Albert Rodiger '18 Eliza Garry '17 Erin Smith '19
Brown University	Bears	Patrick Shanahan '19 Quinn Andersen '18 Sam Alexander '18	Emily Ito '19 Marina Cano '17 Olivia Lord '17 Rachel Gutman '17
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Amina Brown '17 Jan Kite-Powell '19 William Crary '17	Brittney Manning '18 Haley Mcmahon '18 Sydney Connor '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andy Reiter '19 Jack Marshall '18 Massimo Mazzolini '17	Isabelle Trimble '19 Maggie Kelly '17 Albert Kraus '17
Boston College	Eagles	Colin Brego '20 Griffin Elliott '19 Peter Lynn '19 Wade Waddell '19	Elizabeth Matheson '20 Caroline Downey '19 Emma Perry '19
Boston University	Terriers	Alex Moreno '19 Reed Lorimer '18 Robby Gearon '19	Emily Walker '19 Hannah Davis '19 Lexi Pline '19
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Aidan Molesky '20 Andreas Adam '18 Arthur Libby '17	Timothy Montera '18 Macy Blakeley '20 Skye Miller '19

Conditions — 03/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

36°F

↑ 41°F ↓ 22°F

Feels like 27°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.1 kn

avg · max 10.0 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From E (82°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1023.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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