U. S. Coast Guard Academy '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 16.29 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.073 rating points from 364 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 (fleet 0.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 30–33 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–8 |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | — | 7–3 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 12–17 |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | — | 6–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (63 matches) the record is 30–33 against 34.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | crew | 2.97 | 2.30 | 5–8 | 6.8 | −0.67 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.39 | 2.85 | 7–3 | 6.2 | +0.47 | 0.3 | 42% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | crew | 2.80 | 2.87 | 3–8 | 2.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2015-03-28 | Admiral Moore Team Race | crew | 3.85 | 2.13 | 9–9 | 14.8 | −1.72 | 7.8 | >99% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | crew | 2.48 | 3.46 | 6–5 | 4.2 | +0.98 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 10.0 | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 5.7 | — |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 6.2 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 5.1 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 3.0 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 8.0 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 5.2 | — |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Crew | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 2 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 16 | 5.1 | — |
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.8 | 0.94 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 7.8 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 6.5 | — |
| Rose Bowl | Crew | B | 8 | 9.5 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 6.0 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | C | 11 | 8.4 | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Crew | B | 14 | 11.5 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 9.8 | — |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 3.3 | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Crew | B | 12 | 10.2 | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 5.6 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 14.0 | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Crew | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Crew | A, B | 15 | 10.9 | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Crew | A | 2 | 7.0 | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A, B | 8 | 12.5 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 5.6 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 3 | 6.3 | — |
| Pen Bay Open | Crew | A, B | 18 | 9.4 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 18 | 7.4 | — |
| Hewitt Trophy | Crew | A | 15 | 6.7 | — |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Crew | B | 11 | 5.2 | — |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 10.4 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Hannah Herring |  Norfolk Academy |
'14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
