Boston University '16
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.23 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 7 | Spring 2013 |
| Keelboat | 1.69 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 18 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.95 (fleet 4.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 77–95 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 4–9 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 9–16 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 34–40 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 4 | 30–30 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (140 matches) the record is 59–81 against 67.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.66 | 2.81 | 4–9 | 6.1 | −0.86 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.78 | 2.95 | 3–12 | 5.0 | −0.83 | 1.2 | 94% |
| 2015-03-28 | Staake | skipper | 3.86 | 3.55 | 6–4 | 6.5 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.28 | 3.15 | 7–15 | 7.6 | −0.13 | 0.1 | 69% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 3.35 | 2.97 | 12–11 | 13.7 | −0.38 | 0.5 | 85% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.21 | 2.97 | 6–6 | 6.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.36 | 4.00 | 9–8 | 7.4 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 23% |
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 3.27 | 7–5 | 7.5 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 3.40 | 2.73 | 5–11 | 6.8 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.2 | 3.71 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.3 | 4.28 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 3.94 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.6 | 3.53 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.3 | 4.22 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.4 | 4.08 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.7 | 3.79 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.0 | 4.36 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.2 | 4.41 |
| 4th Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.8 | 4.30 |
| 33rd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.7 | 4.47 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Staake | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 4.27 |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.7 | 4.37 |
| Charleston Coed | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 3.52 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.9 | 3.90 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| RI States, 3rd Sister Esther Annual | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.8 | 3.71 |
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.9 | 1.67 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 5.87 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.6 | 3.64 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.2 | 3.62 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.2 | 3.19 |
| 76th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 4.9 | 4.31 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.9 | 3.95 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.0 | 2.91 |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 52% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.1 | 3.13 |
| Charleston Spring Co-Ed | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 3.95 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.4 | 3.83 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.2 | 3.82 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.2 | 3.98 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 10.6 | 2.77 |
| Harmon Cup -Sloops Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.0 | 1.24 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.3 | 3.37 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 3.90 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.6 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.0 | 3.82 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 7.3 | 3.63 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 3.63 |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Crew | A, C | 9 | 8.2 | — |
| BDCC Tech Regatta Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.1 | 1.30 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.3 | 1.60 |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.1 | 3.00 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 2.75 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 5 | 10.8 | 2.50 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.6 | 4.07 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.0 | 2.22 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.0 | 3.43 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 2.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
