Harvard University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (fleet 4.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 58–48 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 6–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 16–15 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 6–3 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 19–22 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 11–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (106 matches) the record is 58–48 against 56.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 4.10 | 3.55 | 6–5 | 7.2 | −0.55 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.87 | 3.56 | 8–6 | 8.9 | −0.30 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.84 | 4.14 | 5–3 | 4.5 | +0.30 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.92 | 3.33 | 3–6 | 3.9 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.81 | 4.55 | 6–3 | 4.5 | +0.74 | 0.8 | 25% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.33 | 3.44 | 6–6 | 5.7 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.29 | 3.78 | 9–7 | 7.3 | +0.49 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.39 | 2.50 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.89 | 0.4 | 92% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.37 | 2.88 | 2–7 | 2.6 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 84% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.16 | 4.08 | 11–3 | 8.7 | +0.91 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.4 | 3.95 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | 3.54 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.97 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.1 | 5.55 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.9 | 4.04 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 4.03 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.5 | 4.89 |
| Coed Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.1 | 4.58 |
| 74th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.5 | 4.99 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Owen,Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.3 | 4.70 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 15 | 6.4 | 3.91 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.1 | 4.64 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.3 | 3.77 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 10.4 | 3.43 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 3.62 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.1 | 3.46 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.9 | 3.44 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 5.06 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.5 | 3.62 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 4.04 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 2.85 |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.5 | 1.24 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.7 | 2.41 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 20 | 11.8 | 3.02 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.1 | 3.69 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 3.92 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 11.6 | 3.36 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 2.38 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.8 | 3.05 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 3.41 |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.3 | 3.15 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.9 | 2.70 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.4 | 2.34 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.2 | 1.71 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.8 | 2.62 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.5 | 2.56 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.1 | 2.68 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.0 | 3.10 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 2.86 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.3 | 1.56 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
