NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship

HostBoston College
Date09/22/2012
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	71
2	University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	105
3	Brown University	Colin Smith '13	110
4	Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	124
5	Tufts University	William Hutchings '13	147
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Philip Crain '13	152
7	Tufts University	Dan Nickerson '15	157
8	Brown University	James Barry '16	157
9	Boston College	Domenic Bove '15	159
10	Harvard University	Marek Zaleski '16	161
11	Yale University	Max Nickbarg '14	167
12	Boston College	Ryan Schmitz '15	175
13	Dartmouth College	Bo Mcclatchy '13	188
14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Joseph Paggi '16	226
15	Brown University	Reid Secondo '16	231
16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	William Livernois '16	262
17	University of Vermont	Henry O'Brien '15	268
18	Roger Williams University	Max Lopez '15	280
19	Harvard University	Luke O'Connor '14	323
20	Northeastern University	Luke Orchardo '16	331

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	3	8	2	5	1	10	2	1	1	6	3	1	7	4	2	2	2	11	71
University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	2	2	11	1	13	1	11	8	2	2	8	8	5	9	7	6	3	6	105
Brown University	Colin Smith '13	1	6	3	12	14	17	16	2	9	5	4	2	3	1	1	4	8	2	110
Brown University	Lucas Adams '15	10	11	9	3	4	3	1	5	5	8	2	4	4	14	4	14	5	18	124
Tufts University	William Hutchings '13	6	4	4	17	12	4	12	3	8	4	17	9	6	10	16	9	1	5	147
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Philip Crain '13	9	7	13	10	8	8	5	13	6	3	7	6	12	12	5	12	4	12	152
Tufts University	Dan Nickerson '15	4	9	7	7	10	14	17	14	15	12	1	7	13	8	3	1	7	8	157
Brown University	James Barry '16	13	20	12	4	11	7	7	9	12	13	5	3	8	3	8	8	11	3	157
Boston College	Domenic Bove '15	14	15	5	9	6	2	3	10	13	9	10	5	15	7	9	5	15	7	159
Harvard University	Marek Zaleski '16	5	18	6	6	7	6	6	11	7	14	15	17	2	11	13	3	10	4	161
Yale University	Max Nickbarg '14	8	13	1	14	9	11	13	4	3	18	13	14	1	2	10	10	9	14	167
Boston College	Ryan Schmitz '15	7	3	14	8	2	5	14	16	10	7	12	11	10	15	12	15	13	1	175
Dartmouth College	Bo Mcclatchy '13	17	19	10	2	5	19	10	7	18	1	11	13	9	5	14	13	6	9	188
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Joseph Paggi '16	11	16	15	13	15	12	8	6	11	10	6	15	14	17	19	11	14	13	226
Brown University	Reid Secondo '16	16	14	16	18	17	15	4	12	4	11	9	12	16	6	17	17	12	15	231
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	William Livernois '16	12	5	18	15	16	9	20	17	17	17	18	16	17	13	18	7	17	10	262
University of Vermont	Henry O'Brien '15	19	12	17	16	18	16	15	18	14	15	14	10	11	16	6	16	16	19	268
Roger Williams University	Max Lopez '15	15	1	8	11	3	18	9	15	16	16	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	280
Harvard University	Luke O'Connor '14	18	17	DNF	19	19	13	18	19	20	19	16	DNF	19	DNS	11	18	18	16	323
Northeastern University	Luke Orchardo '16	20	10	19	20	20	20	19	20	19	DNF	19	18	18	18	15	19	19	17	331

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 20 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Cam Cullman '13	Yale University Elis	18/18	2.90	4.26	+1.36	78th → 98th	9.3	1%	3.9 / 8.4
2	Michael Zonnenberg '15	University of Vermont Catamounts	18/18	2.68	3.51	+0.83	71st → 91st	4.1	6%	5.8 / 9.1
3	Colin Smith '13	Brown University Bears 1	18/18	3.03	3.21	+0.18	83rd → 85th	0.2	18%	6.1 / 8.0
4	Lucas Adams '15	Brown University Bears 4	18/18	2.60	2.93	+0.33	68th → 79th	0.7	12%	6.9 / 9.3
5	William Hutchings '13	Tufts University Jumbalaya	18/18	2.78	2.60	−0.18	75th → 68th	0.2	42%	8.2 / 8.8
6	Philip Crain '13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Angry Beavers	18/18	2.86	2.81	−0.05	78th → 76th	0.0	51%	8.4 / 8.6
7	Dan Nickerson '15	Tufts University Jumbos	18/18	2.37	2.70	+0.33	61st → 72nd	0.7	32%	8.7 / 10.1
7	James Barry '16	Brown University Bears 2	18/18	2.08	2.64	+0.56	54th → 69th	1.9	22%	8.7 / 10.9
9	Domenic Bove '15	Boston College Eagles 1	18/18	2.38	2.64	+0.26	61st → 69th	0.5	36%	8.8 / 10.0
10	Marek Zaleski '16	Harvard University Cantabs	18/18	2.25	2.45	+0.21	59th → 62nd	0.3	32%	8.9 / 10.3
11	Max Nickbarg '14	Yale University Bulldogs	18/18	2.22	2.46	+0.24	58th → 62nd	0.4	35%	9.3 / 10.4
12	Ryan Schmitz '15	Boston College Eagles 2	18/18	2.01	2.41	+0.40	52nd → 61st	1.1	33%	9.7 / 11.1
13	Bo Mcclatchy '13	Dartmouth College	18/18	2.20	2.08	−0.13	58th → 54th	0.1	51%	10.4 / 10.5
14	Joseph Paggi '16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers	18/18	2.10	1.72	−0.38	55th → 43rd	1.0	73%	12.6 / 10.8
15	Reid Secondo '16	Brown University Bears 3	18/18	1.24	1.75	+0.51	29th → 43rd	1.7	41%	12.8 / 13.3
16	William Livernois '16	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	18/18	1.51	1.15	−0.35	38th → 25th	0.9	78%	14.6 / 12.4
17	Henry O'Brien '15	University of Vermont Cats	18/18	1.77	1.23	−0.54	43rd → 29th	2.2	88%	14.9 / 11.7
18	Max Lopez '15	Roger Williams University	18/18	2.69	2.03	−0.66	71st → 53rd	2.0	99%	15.6 / 9.1
19	Luke O'Connor '14	Harvard University Crimson	18/18	1.41	0.32	−1.10	34th → 11th	6.9	99%	17.9 / 12.7
20	Luke Orchardo '16	Northeastern University	18/18	0.73	-0.80	−1.53	17th → 1st	8.8	97%	18.4 / 14.6

Conditions — 09/22/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 15.6 kn

From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine7.4 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1013.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Boston College — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Boston College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Boston College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (29 labelled fleet-race days at Boston College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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