St. Mary's College of Maryland '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.97 (fleet 4.10) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 138–58 (70%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 79–31 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 59–27 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (150 matches) the record is 109–41 against 96.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+12.1). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 4.09 | 4.53 | 18–7 | 16.2 | +0.44 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-04-05 | Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.87 | 4.24 | 18–3 | 17.3 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.83 | 5.13 | 16–5 | 10.8 | +1.29 | 4.7 | 1% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 4.00 | 3.97 | 11–4 | 11.1 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.95 | 3.56 | 9–5 | 10.0 | −0.39 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 4.03 | 3.60 | 7–7 | 8.3 | −0.42 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.85 | 4.84 | 16–7 | 11.7 | +1.00 | 3.1 | 3% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.99 | 4.97 | 14–3 | 11.7 | +0.98 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.0 | 4.41 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.6 | 3.68 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.4 | 3.70 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 72% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 5.3 | 4.22 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 4.28 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 3.73 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 77% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.1 | 3.74 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 23 | 70% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 3.46 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 60% | — |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 3.87 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.7 | 3.77 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 3.48 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.3 | 4.34 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.0 | 4.19 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 3.84 |
| ICSA Western Semi-Final | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.29 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 3.86 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.4 | 3.83 |
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.4 | 4.62 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.5 | 3.38 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.0 | 3.42 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 3.85 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.1 | 3.60 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.1 | 4.29 |
| St. Mary's Fall | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.8 | 3.81 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.9 | 3.54 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 20 | 7.0 | 3.59 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.1 | 3.71 |
| Atlantic Coast Dinghies | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.0 | 3.27 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.6 | 3.03 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
