Captain "Joe" Prosser Trophy

HostKings Point
Date04/11/2015
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–1
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12–2
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	6–8
4	Fordham University	Rams	6–8
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–8
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	6–8
7	George Washington University	Colonials	4–10
8	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,462 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 56 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.480 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	12.52 school −0.07	Sean Golden / Jack Gerli 4.08 11–1 Nevin Snow / Nancy Hagood 4.71 11–1 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.76 11–1 Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.94 2–0 Alex Post / Jack Welty 3.68 2–0 Sean Golden / Mary Kate Mezzetti 4.01 2–0	88%	13–1 (93%)	+0.8
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2	11.55 school +0.56	Edmund Cooper / Catherine Shanahan 3.45 Alexander Curtiss / Thad Bench 3.88 Jacob La Dow / Greer Wattson 3.57	71%	12–2 (86%)	+2.1
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3	10.87 school −0.09	Michael Popp / Peter Hogan 3.53 Mary Hall / Michael Madigan 3.77 5–7 Patrick Snow / Charles Peck 3.61 5–7 Mary Hall / Charles Peck 3.80 1–1 Patrick Snow / Aaron Hull 3.60 1–1	55%	6–8 (43%)	−1.7
4	Fordham University Rams	5	10.42 school −0.08	Will Holz / Emma Huntress 3.22 Connor Godfrey / Connor Murphy 3.76 Alecsander Tayler / Evan Morgan 3.50	44%	6–8 (43%)	−0.2
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	6	10.31 school −0.25	Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 4.03 Augie Dale / Colin Voigt 3.36 Joseph David / Jason Bankert 3.13 5–7 Daniel Lochner / Jason Bankert 3.18 1–1	42%	6–8 (43%)	+0.2
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	10.47 school +0.06	Eddie Cox / Parker Trepton 3.37 Greiner Hobbs / Adam Schaefer 3.55 Elliott Morrill / Noah Barrengos Barrengos 3.43	45%	6–8 (43%)	−0.3
7	George Washington University Colonials	7	9.75 school −0.22	Kai Friesecke / Matthew Ricci 3.44 Roger Dorr / Isabel Strachan 3.25 3–7 Brendan Shanahan / Miranda Bakos 3.25 1–7 Roger Dorr / Miranda Bakos 3.28 1–3 Brendan Shanahan / Isabel Strachan 3.24 1–3 Brendan Shanahan / Meagan Murphy 3.21 2–0	28%	4–10 (29%)	+0.0
8	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	8	9.71 school −0.10	Zachary Hill / James Lane 3.72 Austin Buonsignore / Matthew Romanuski 2.34 Nick Valente / Caitlin Cummings 3.69	28%	3–11 (21%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	11.55	12.65	12–2	9.9	+1.10	1.5	15%
1	Georgetown University	12.52	13.17	13–1	12.2	+0.65	0.3	46%
5	Old Dominion University	10.31	10.38	6–8	5.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
7	George Washington University	9.75	9.76	4–10	4.0	+0.01	0.0	60%
4	Fordham University	10.42	10.35	6–8	6.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	10.47	10.36	6–8	6.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
8	SUNY Maritime College	9.71	9.34	3–11	3.9	−0.37	0.2	80%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.87	10.29	6–8	7.7	−0.59	0.7	90%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Edmund Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.45	4.55	12–2	9.9	+1.10	1.5	15%
Alexander Curtiss	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.88	4.98	12–2	9.9	+1.10	1.5	15%
Jacob La Dow	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.57	4.67	12–2	9.9	+1.10	1.5	15%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	4.08	4.72	13–1	12.2	+0.65	0.3	46%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.71	5.35	13–1	12.2	+0.65	0.3	46%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.76	4.40	13–1	12.2	+0.65	0.3	46%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	4.03	4.09	6–8	5.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
Augie Dale	Old Dominion University	3.36	3.42	6–8	5.8	+0.07	0.0	57%
Joseph David	Old Dominion University	3.13	3.18	5–7	4.9	+0.05	0.0	59%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.25	3.26	4–10	4.0	+0.01	0.0	60%
Will Holz	Fordham University	3.22	3.15	6–8	6.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Connor Godfrey	Fordham University	3.76	3.69	6–8	6.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Alecsander Tayler	Fordham University	3.50	3.43	6–8	6.2	−0.07	0.0	66%
Eddie Cox	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.37	3.26	6–8	6.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Elliott Morrill	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.43	3.32	6–8	6.3	−0.11	0.0	68%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.72	3.35	3–11	3.9	−0.37	0.2	80%
Austin Buonsignore	SUNY Maritime College	2.34	1.97	3–11	3.9	−0.37	0.2	80%
Nick Valente	SUNY Maritime College	3.69	3.33	3–11	3.9	−0.37	0.2	80%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.77	3.18	6–8	7.7	−0.59	0.7	90%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.53	2.94	6–8	7.7	−0.59	0.7	90%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.61	3.03	6–8	7.7	−0.59	0.7	90%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	36%	upset
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	86%
1	3	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	49%	upset
1	4	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
1	5	SUNY Maritime College	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
1	6	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	61%
1	7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	85%
1	8	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	89%
1	9	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	67%
1	10	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	63%
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
1	12	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	13	Fordham University	George Washington University	66%
1	14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	68%
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	77%
1	16	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
1	17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	67%
1	18	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	75%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	SUNY Maritime College	76%
1	20	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	90%
1	21	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	25%	upset
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	75%
1	23	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	53%
1	24	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
1	25	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	26	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	53%
1	27	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	50%	upset
1	28	Georgetown University	Fordham University	88%
2	29	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	64%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	86%
2	31	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	49%	upset
2	32	Georgetown University	George Washington University	94%
2	33	Old Dominion University	SUNY Maritime College	65%
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	61%
2	35	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	86%
2	36	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
2	37	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	67%
2	38	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	63%
2	39	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	60%
2	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	28%	upset
2	41	George Washington University	Fordham University	34%	upset
2	42	SUNY Maritime College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	32%	upset
2	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	78%
2	44	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
2	45	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	67%
2	46	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	76%
2	47	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Naval Academy	24%	upset
2	48	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	90%
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	75%
2	50	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	25%	upset
2	51	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	48%	upset
2	52	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	95%
2	53	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
2	54	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	46%	upset
2	55	George Washington University	SUNY Maritime College	50%	upset
2	56	Georgetown University	Fordham University	88%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Rams	Monarchs	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–2	L	W	W	L	W	✕	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Seahawks	Midshipmen	Rams	Monarchs	Statesmen	Colonials	Privateers
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	L
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	3–4	L	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
2	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
3	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
5	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
6	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
7	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Colonials	1-4-6
8	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
9	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
10	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
11	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
12	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
13	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
14	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
15	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
16	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
17	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
18	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
19	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6 DNF
20	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
21	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
22	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
23	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
24	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
25	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
26	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
27	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
28	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
29	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
30	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
31	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
32	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
33	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
34	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
35	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
36	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
37	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
38	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
39	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
40	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
41	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
42	Privateers	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
44	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
45	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
46	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
47	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
48	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
50	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
51	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
53	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
54	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
55	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
56	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Katie Olsen '15 Jack Welty '16 Nancy Hagood '14 Katia Dasilva '15 Jack Gerli '17 Mary Kate Mezzetti '16
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Alexander Curtiss '16 Edmund Cooper '17 Jacob La Dow '15	Thad Bench '15 Catherine Shanahan '15 Greer Wattson '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Charles Peck '15 Michael Madigan '17 Peter Hogan '18 Aaron Hull '16
Fordham University	Rams	Alecsander Tayler '17 Connor Godfrey '16 Will Holz '17	Evan Morgan '18 Connor Murphy '16 Emma Huntress '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Augie Dale '18 Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Jason Bankert '18 Gabriel Smith '17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Eddie Cox '16 Elliott Morrill '15 Greiner Hobbs '18	Parker Trepton '18 Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18 Adam Schaefer '17
George Washington University	Colonials	Brendan Shanahan '17 Kai Friesecke '18 Roger Dorr '18	Miranda Bakos '18 Isabel Strachan '18 Meagan Murphy '15 Matthew Ricci '15
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Austin Buonsignore '16 Nick Valente '16 Zachary Hill '18	Matthew Romanuski '16 Caitlin Cummings '18 James Lane '17

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1015.6 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.0 kn

avg · max 12.9 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From WNW (299°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1015.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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