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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 41 47 88
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 48 55 103
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 56 60 116
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 59 75 134
5 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 127 51 178
6 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 92 99 191
7 Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 132 63 195
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 105 114 219
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 122 111 233
10 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 111 132 243
11 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 119 128 247
12 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 138 121 259
13 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 143 119 262
14 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 134 132 266
15 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 115 160 275
16 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 152 154 306
17 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 116 207 323
18 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 142 212 354
19 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 203 178 381
20 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 220 170 390
21 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 202 205 407
22 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 212 218 430
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 3 11 2 1 10 9 1 1 1 1 1 41 Chuck Eaton '17 [1-11]
Kellie Yamada '16 [1-8]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [9-11]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 15 1 3 4 4 2 2 3 2 2 10 48 Matthew Hecht '16 [1-11]
Hope Modugno '18 [1-4]
Melissa Schem '18 [5-11]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 2 RDG 1 11 3 1 3 2 12 5 5 56 Simone Staff '18
Olivia Godfrey '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 13 3 5 2 5 3 6 5 6 3 8 59 Kristopher Swanson '18 [1-11]
Claire Hunt '19 [1-8]
Grant Rickon '16 [9-11]
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 7 5 6 9 12 16 5 12 7 10 3 92 Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-11]
Sydney Munson '18 [1-4]
William Pollard '18 [5-11]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 5 4 4 7 6 15 8 13 16 13 14 105 Nicolas Delfino '16 [1-11]
No Show [1-8]
Warren Ko '19 [9-11]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 19 7 16 13 11 5 7 14 8 9 2 111 David Berry '16
No Show
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 20 14 10 10 1 10 10 4 10 7 19 115 Caitlin Schadt '18
Gianna Bailey '18
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 6 21 8 6 13 7 19 7 11 6 12 116 Brian Maclean '18
Caressa Brewer '18
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 9 6 17 8 2 18 12 17 13 4 13 119 Kris Thompson '16
Cassidy Lynch '17
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 18 12 14 20 7 11 9 6 3 15 7 122 Ben Brough '19
Kathryn Cornella '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 10 10 18 5 21 17 15 9 5 11 6 127 Henry Keenan '18
Chun Ting Justin Lai '16
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 1 19 12 16 8 4 14 DNS 17 14 4 132 Matthew Long '20
Maxime Rooij '18
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 4 17 15 3 16 6 4 15 18 20 16 134 Sunny Scarbrough '17
Anna Rubino '16
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 12 2 19 15 15 14 11 10 9 8 DNS 138 No Show
Catherine Hackwell '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 11 9 7 12 9 12 17 18 15 17 15 142 William Emberley '16
Sabrina Perell '18
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 8 20 11 14 14 8 20 11 14 12 11 143 Kate Flanagan '17
Audrey Jacobs '18
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears DNF 22 9 18 17 13 13 8 4 16 9 152 Kyra Oakes '18
Ekaterina Goncharova '18
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 16 13 13 17 19 20 22 16 20 DNF DNS 202 Olivia Gibbons '17
Brian Bischoff '18
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 17 16 21 19 18 19 16 21 19 19 18 203 Kip Wanaselja '16
James Melvin '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 14 8 20 22 20 21 18 20 DNF DNF DNS 212 Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker '19 [1-11]
Helen Payne '19 [1-4]
Rachel Hunter '19 [5-11]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 21 15 22 21 22 DNS 21 19 21 18 17 220 Thomas Garcia '19
Laura Roudebush '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Black 2 5 5 5 DNS 2 1 1 1 1 1 47 Soren Wilde '19 [1-11]
Annika Garrett '19 [1-4, 9-11]
Cole Brauer '17 [5-8]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 4 3 11 8 4 10 2 2 3 2 2 51 Henrik Bey '17
Katie Hitchcock '16
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 4 9 6 2 7 3 3 2 13 5 55 Peter Wong '18 [1-11]
Paul Chyz '18 [1-7]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [8-11]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women 11 1 1 9 3 1 4 12 9 5 4 60 Ginger Luckey '16
Ellen Gable '17
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros 3 7 3 1 9 12 6 8 4 7 3 63 Silas Barton '18
No Show
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 13 2 8 4 1 6 7 10 7 4 13 75 Joseph Schiff '17
Madisson Thomas '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 7 11 4 3 8 5 15 15 5 3 DNS 99 Francesca Dana '18 [1-4]
Robbie Culkin '19 [5-11]
Madeleine Landry '18 [1-4]
Zach Steffen '18 [5-11]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 1 6 6 2 19 13 15 10 11 10 12 7 111 Grace Carrick '18
Sophie Ellison '19
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 8 8 17 10 10 9 9 7 16 6 14 114 Brett Farrell '17
Hayley Chong '17
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 15 12 21 22 6 11 5 6 6 9 6 119 Lucy Clara Jones '17
Athina Ebert '17
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 10 14 10 14 7 13 11 9 13 10 10 121 Elmeri Hakkinen '18
Neil Roberts '11
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 12 13 12 7 12 3 13 16 15 14 11 128 Ezra Boyer '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Bartels '17 [3-4, 7-11]
Johanna Mannisto '18 [1-6]
Ezra Boyer '18 [7-11]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 5 18 7 11 14 17 18 14 8 8 12 132 Kia Meiklejohn '18
Leh Smallshaw '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 14 10 6 2 11 4 12 4 DNS DNS DNS 132 John Mcinerney '18
Brooke Scholl '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 21 21 22 20 5 8 8 5 11 15 18 154 Elizabeth Hansen '19
Olivia Macdonald '19
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbow Green 16 9 14 17 16 16 16 13 17 17 9 160 Annie Johnson '18
Taylor Morgan '16
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 20 17 15 12 17 20 19 17 14 11 8 170 Miles Picus '18
Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 18 19 20 13 15 14 14 20 12 18 15 178 Alexander Brocchini '17
Altea Hines '16
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 9 15 18 15 18 21 17 DNF DNS DNS DNS 205 Peter Schmidt '18
Alicia Ward '18
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 17 22 19 16 DNS 19 22 18 18 16 17 207 Philip Tagatac '17 [1-11]
Ali Sepasyar '17 [1-6, 8]
Formosa Lan '17 [7, 9-11]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 22 20 13 21 20 22 21 19 19 19 16 212 Joshua Leung '18 [1-11]
Ishita Singh '17 [1-4]
Hayley Palmer '17 [5-11]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2 19 16 16 18 19 18 20 DNF DNS DNS DNS 218 Cassandra Isaacson '19 [1-4]
Belle Lemoine '19 [5-11]
Neda Kasraee '18 [1-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears2323232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears241241241241241241241241241241241
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds11111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 133333333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103103103103103103103103
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers77777777777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Black3535353535353535353535
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green3636363636363636363636
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1111111111111111111111
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros132132132132132132132132132132132
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1919191919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans3737373737373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4747474747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2525252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2828282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons2929292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women3232323232323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's3434343434343434343434
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes8686868686868686868686
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Women8282828282828282828282

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears2323232323232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears241241241241241241241241241241241
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds11111111111
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 133333333333
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 2103103103103103103103103103103103
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers77777777777
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Black3535353535353535353535
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbow Green3636363636363636363636
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters1111111111111111111111
Santa Barbara City CollegeSanta Barbara City College Vaqueros132132132132132132132132132132132
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos1919191919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans3737373737373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies4747474747474747474747
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters2525252525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins2828282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons2929292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gaucho Women3232323232323232323232
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos3131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's3434343434343434343434
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Vikes8686868686868686868686
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8181818181818181818181
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Women8282828282828282828282
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Ben Brough '19 Kathryn Cornella '16
Mustang 1 Grace Carrick '18 Sophie Ellison '19
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Maria-Elena Falahee-Walker '19 [1-11] Helen Payne '19 [1-4]
Rachel Hunter '19 [5-11]
Mustang 2 Cassandra Isaacson '19 [1-4]
Belle Lemoine '19 [5-11]		 Neda Kasraee '18 [1-4]
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Sunny Scarbrough '17 Anna Rubino '16
49ers John Mcinerney '18 Brooke Scholl '16
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Olivia Gibbons '17 Brian Bischoff '18
Otters Peter Schmidt '18 Alicia Ward '18
Santa Barbara City College Santa Barbara City College Matthew Long '20 Maxime Rooij '18
Vaqueros Silas Barton '18 No Show
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Francesca Cappellini '16 [1-11] Sydney Munson '18 [1-4]
William Pollard '18 [5-11]
Broncos Francesca Dana '18 [1-4]
Robbie Culkin '19 [5-11]		 Madeleine Landry '18 [1-4]
Zach Steffen '18 [5-11]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia No Show Catherine Hackwell '19
UBC Thunderbirds Elmeri Hakkinen '18 Neil Roberts '11
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Henry Keenan '18 Chun Ting Justin Lai '16
Bears Henrik Bey '17 Katie Hitchcock '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Kyra Oakes '18 Ekaterina Goncharova '18
Mama Bears Elizabeth Hansen '19 Olivia Macdonald '19
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis William Emberley '16 Sabrina Perell '18
Aggies Joshua Leung '18 [1-11] Ishita Singh '17 [1-4]
Hayley Palmer '17 [5-11]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Brian Maclean '18 Caressa Brewer '18
Anteaters Philip Tagatac '17 [1-11] Ali Sepasyar '17 [1-6, 8]
Formosa Lan '17 [7, 9-11]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Thomas Garcia '19 Laura Roudebush '18
Bruins Miles Picus '18 Kylie Sullivan '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Nicolas Delfino '16 [1-11] No Show [1-8]
Warren Ko '19 [9-11]
Tritons Brett Farrell '17 Hayley Chong '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Simone Staff '18 Olivia Godfrey '17
Gaucho Women Ginger Luckey '16 Ellen Gable '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Kristopher Swanson '18 [1-11] Claire Hunt '19 [1-8]
Grant Rickon '16 [9-11]
Gauchos Joseph Schiff '17 Madisson Thomas '17
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Kip Wanaselja '16 James Melvin '19
Banana Slug's Alexander Brocchini '17 Altea Hines '16
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Chuck Eaton '17 [1-11] Kellie Yamada '16 [1-8]
Cuylar Zimmerman '19 [9-11]
Rainbow Black Soren Wilde '19 [1-11] Annika Garrett '19 [1-4, 9-11]
Cole Brauer '17 [5-8]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Caitlin Schadt '18 Gianna Bailey '18
Rainbow Green Annie Johnson '18 Taylor Morgan '16
University of Southern California University of Southern California Matthew Hecht '16 [1-11] Hope Modugno '18 [1-4]
Melissa Schem '18 [5-11]
Trojans Peter Wong '18 [1-11] Paul Chyz '18 [1-7]
Aaron Kiyotoki '19 [8-11]
University of Victoria University of Victoria David Berry '16 No Show
Vikes Kia Meiklejohn '18 Leh Smallshaw '17
University of Washington University of Washington Kris Thompson '16 Cassidy Lynch '17
Huskies Ezra Boyer '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Bartels '17 [3-4, 7-11]		 Johanna Mannisto '18 [1-6]
Ezra Boyer '18 [7-11]
University of Washington University of Washington Kate Flanagan '17 Audrey Jacobs '18
Husky Women Lucy Clara Jones '17 Athina Ebert '17

Conditions — 10/17/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From WSW (243°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover63% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1014.6 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Berkeley: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.12
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →