University of Washington '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 44.77 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.119 rating points from 11 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.87 (fleet 2.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 53–59 (47%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 23–19 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 23–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 41–53 against 40.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.52 | -0.48 | 0–15 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 2.41 | 1.73 | 3–6 | 4.4 | −0.68 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 2.36 | 1.76 | 4–2 | 4.6 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.57 | 2.50 | 1–14 | 1.0 | −0.07 | 0.0 | 83% |
| 2014-04-05 | NW Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.54 | 1.95 | 8–1 | 8.4 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.51 | 4.25 | 14–4 | 11.0 | +1.73 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.83 | 1.94 | 2–11 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2013-05-04 | NW Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 1.80 | 4.80 | 9–0 | 8.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.8 | 2.10 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.8 | 3.64 |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.5 | 1.83 |
| NWICSA Co-Ed Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.8 | 2.33 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.6 | 2.72 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.8 | 1.90 |
| North North | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.3 | 2.53 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 2.88 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 1.90 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 1.7 | 3.00 |
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North NW Fall Champs | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.1 | 2.67 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.9 | 3.69 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.7 | 1.78 |
| NW Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 78% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.4 | 1.63 |
| NWICSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.0 | 2.22 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.1 | 1.75 |
| North/North | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.7 | 3.41 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - 2 div | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 2.58 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 2.58 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| South 5 Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.3 | 1.11 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.0 | 2.07 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 2.32 |
| PJ Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.2 | 1.32 |
| NWICSA Coed Conference Championship | Crew | B | 4 | 2.5 | — |
| NW Team Race Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 2.00 |
| Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 0.62 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Crew | A | 3 | 11.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
