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North/North NW Fall Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 19 14 33
2 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 18 23 41
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 17 26 43
4 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 43 18 61
5 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 45 42 87
6 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 36 56 92
7 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 60 64 124
8 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 74 MRP 70 MRP 144 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 3 1 1 2 3 1 4 17 Kris Thompson '16
Athina Ebert '17
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 2 2 3 1 4 2 3 18 Geoff Abel '14
Adele Horbulyk '16
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 1 3 2 3 2 3 2 19 Gabe Hill '16
Haley Bolin '17
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 8 6 4 4 4 5 4 1 36 Jeanne Currie '16
Morgan Kelly '18
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 6 8 5 6 6 1 6 5 43 Cody Odou '17
Carl Fixsen '12
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 7 4 7 5 5 6 5 6 45 Matthew Darling '14
Oscar Higgott '16
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 4 7 6 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Quanah Green '17
John Hart '11
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 5 5 8 8 7 7 7 7 74 MRP William Service '15
Sebastian Boal '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 1 2 RDG 1 2 2 3 14 Paul Foley '15
Jasmine Gerraty '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 2 1 2 4 4 1 1 18 Brian Hickman '15
Kyle Peterzã©N '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 4 3 5 2 1 4 2 23 David Berry '16
Laurel Speed '16
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 3 4 1 3 3 3 4 26 Kate Flanagan '17
Melissa Hickenbottom '16
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 4 6 7 3 5 5 7 5 42 Hannah Gutenbarg '16
Connie Mckimm '16
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 7 8 6 DNS 7 6 6 7 56 Clara Reid '16
Ekaterina Gerasimenko '15
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 6 5 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 Sierra Prior '16
David Pearson '15
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 8 7 5 6 6 7 5 6 70 MRP Lauren Engstrom '16
Johnny Moore '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 17117118875757878
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 288757578788181
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers7575787881818383
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings7878818183838787
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers838387878989711711
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder8989711711887575
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8181838387878989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings8787898971171188

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 17117118875757878
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 288757578788181
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers7575787881818383
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings7878818183838787
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers838387878989711711
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder8989711711887575
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8181838387878989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings8787898971171188

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1009.7 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From N (8°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine1.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1009.7 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · NW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →