University of Washington '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–33 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–8 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 1–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 8–33 against 10.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–15 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.09 | 0.41 | 3–6 | 4.4 | −0.68 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 1.18 | 0.59 | 4–2 | 4.6 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 0.80 | 0.83 | 1–10 | 1.0 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 82% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.3 | 0.15 |
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 13.2 | 0.30 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.0 | 1.55 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 1.90 |
| NWICSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.4 | 2.21 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 11 | 13.0 | 1.46 |
| North North | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.7 | 1.67 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.9 | 0.14 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 6 | 18.0 | 0.10 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 11 | 2.4 | 1.77 |
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.7 | 0.96 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North NW Fall Champs | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.2 | 1.44 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.1 | 0.45 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.2 | -0.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
