Rainier Cup

HostOregon State
Date04/18/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	University of Washington	Huskies	19	26	45
2	University of Oregon	Ducks	37	21	58
3	Oregon State University	Beavers	42	32	74
4	Western Washington University	Vikings	43	46	89
5	Northwestern University	Wildcats	47	74	121
6	Pioneers 2	Pioneers 2	79	62	141
7	Portland State University	Vikings	59	110	169
8	Loggers	Loggers	88	93	181
9	Pioneers 1	Pioneers 1	103	84	187

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
University of Washington	Huskies	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	4	1	19	Kris Thompson '16 Cassidy Lynch '17
University of Oregon	Ducks	1	3	2	2	3	1	4	7	7	2	5	37	Stephen Moran '16 Sarah Raulston '16
Oregon State University	Beavers	5	4	6	5	4	5	3	4	1	3	2	42	Cody Odou '17 Aike Burger '16
Western Washington University	Vikings	4	1	7	6	1	4	7	2	3	1	7	43	Gabe Hill '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Van Slyck '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11] Haley Bolin '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Grace Davidson '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	3	5	4	4	5	6	2	6	4	5	3	47	Ryan Anderson '15 [1-11] Hangyeol Lee '15 [1-4, 7-11] Bill White '16 [5-6]
Portland State University	Vikings	7	8	5	3	7	3	6	5	5	6	4	59	Quanah Green '17 Sierra Prior '16
Pioneers 2	Pioneers 2	6	6	3	DNS	DNS	DNF	5	3	DNF	DNS	6	79
Loggers	Loggers	8	7	DNS	8	6	DNF	8	8	6	7	DNS	88
Pioneers 1	Pioneers 1	9	9	8	7	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	103

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
University of Oregon	Ducks	2	2	2	1	1	1	5	1	2	2	2	21	Ryan Fritsen '14 Janika Jordan '17
University of Washington	Huskies	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	2	4	4	3	26	Kate Flanagan '17 Audrey Jacobs '18
Oregon State University	Beavers	4	3	4	3	3	4	1	7	1	1	1	32	Brian Hickman '15 Kyle Peterzã©N '16
Western Washington University	Vikings	3	5	3	4	5	3	2	6	5	5	5	46	Sam Digasper '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Benjamin Kaas '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11] Hope Odendahl '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Halee Sexton '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Pioneers 2	Pioneers 2	5	4	DNS	DNS	6	5	8	4	3	3	4	62
Northwestern University	Wildcats	6	DNF	5	5	4	6	3	5	DNF	DNS	DNS	74	Matthew Zampa '15 [1-6] Bill White '16 [7-11] Henri Adams '18 [1-6]
Pioneers 1	Pioneers 1	7	6	6	6	DNS	DNS	6	3	DNS	DNS	DNS	84
Loggers	Loggers	DNS	DNS	7	7	7	7	7	8	DNS	DNF	DNS	93
Portland State University	Vikings	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	110	Quanah Green '17 Sierra Prior '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
Northwestern University Wildcats	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
University of Oregon Ducks	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73
Oregon State University Beavers	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75
Portland State University Vikings	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78
Loggers Loggers	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
University of Washington Huskies	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
Western Washington University Vikings	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Pioneers 1 Pioneers 1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Pioneers 2 Pioneers 2	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72	72
Northwestern University Wildcats	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
University of Oregon Ducks	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73	73
Oregon State University Beavers	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75	75
Portland State University Vikings	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	78
Loggers Loggers	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83	83
University of Washington Huskies	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
Western Washington University Vikings	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88	88

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Northwestern University	Ryan Anderson '15 [1-11]	Hangyeol Lee '15 [1-4, 7-11] Bill White '16 [5-6]
Wildcats	Matthew Zampa '15 [1-6] Bill White '16 [7-11]	Henri Adams '18 [1-6]
Oregon State University	Cody Odou '17	Aike Burger '16
Beavers	Brian Hickman '15	Kyle Peterzã©N '16
Portland State University	Quanah Green '17	Sierra Prior '16
Vikings	Quanah Green '17	Sierra Prior '16
University of Oregon	Stephen Moran '16	Sarah Raulston '16
Ducks	Ryan Fritsen '14	Janika Jordan '17
University of Washington	Kris Thompson '16	Cassidy Lynch '17
Huskies	Kate Flanagan '17	Audrey Jacobs '18
Western Washington University	Gabe Hill '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Van Slyck '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]	Haley Bolin '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Grace Davidson '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Vikings	Sam Digasper '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Benjamin Kaas '17 [3-4, 7-8, 11]	Hope Odendahl '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Halee Sexton '15 [3-4, 7-8, 11]

Conditions — 04/18/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 61% · Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 45°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.9 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 20.0 kn

From N (6°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1023.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn · E 14 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Oregon State: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Oregon State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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