University of Oregon '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.38 (fleet 1.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–10 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 10–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 11–10 against 11.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-05 | NW Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | -0.28 | 1–5 | 2.7 | −1.89 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.65 | 1.56 | 5–4 | 5.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 1.31 | 2.86 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.54 | 1.5 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.2 | 2.59 |
| NWICSA Co-Ed Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.6 | 2.43 |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 21.6 | 1.08 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.2 | 3.12 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.7 | 1.44 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.3 | 2.24 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.4 | 1.59 |
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 10 | 2.6 | 1.99 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.5 | 1.55 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 17.1 | 1.98 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 1.16 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.6 | 1.31 |
| NWICSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.4 | 1.90 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 3 | 9.7 | 0.52 |
| North/North | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | 0.83 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
