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NW Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 7–1
2 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 5–3
3 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 2–6
4 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3–5
5 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,222 team race matches sailed before 2016-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 12 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.617 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.52 ± 0.51: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Western Washington University
Vikings		14.54
school +0.55, home +0.25		Gabe Hill / Haley Bolin 1.69
Jasmine Gerraty / Lena Captain 0.80
Benjamin Kaas / No Show		90%5–1 (83%)−0.4
2Oregon State University
Beavers		22.62
school +0.10		Patrick (Drew) Ehlers / Madison Thompson
Jin Parisien / Mitchell Baertlein
Alexander Muschler / Abby Schamp 0.36 3–1
Alexander Muschler / Kyle Peterzen 0.35 1–1		50%4–2 (67%)+1.0
4Lewis and Clark College
Pioneers		41.07
school +0.32		Haines Whitacre / Junya Sakashita
Robin Gropp / Anya Jacquez 0.32
Schuyler Jones / Torin Lee		14%2–4 (33%)+1.1
5University of Oregon
Ducks		32.39
school +0.48		Stephen Moran / Henriette Smith 1.62
Sam Reul / Emily Tourtelot
Sarah Raulston / Janika Jordan		45%1–5 (17%)−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Lewis and Clark College1.072.252–40.9+1.181.021%
2Oregon State University2.623.664–23.0+1.040.831%
1Western Washington University4.543.895–15.4−0.660.290%
5University of Oregon2.390.491–52.7−1.892.299%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Haines WhitacreLewis and Clark College0.121.302–40.9+1.181.021%
Robin GroppLewis and Clark College0.321.502–40.9+1.181.021%
Schuyler JonesLewis and Clark College-0.121.062–40.9+1.181.021%
Patrick (Drew) EhlersOregon State University2.083.124–23.0+1.040.831%
Alexander MuschlerOregon State University0.361.404–23.0+1.040.831%
Jin ParisienOregon State University-0.220.824–23.0+1.040.831%
Gabe HillWestern Washington University1.691.035–15.4−0.660.290%
Jasmine GerratyWestern Washington University0.800.145–15.4−0.660.290%
Benjamin KaasWestern Washington University1.050.395–15.4−0.660.290%
Stephen MoranUniversity of Oregon1.62-0.281–52.7−1.892.299%
Sam ReulUniversity of Oregon-0.01-1.901–52.7−1.892.299%
Sarah RaulstonUniversity of Oregon0.01-1.881–52.7−1.892.299%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Lewis and Clark CollegeUniversity of Oregon19%upset
12Oregon State UniversityLewis and Clark College80%
13Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Oregon55%
14Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Oregon88%
15Western Washington UniversityLewis and Clark College97%
18Western Washington UniversityOregon State University87%
211University of OregonLewis and Clark College78%
212Lewis and Clark CollegeOregon State University20%upset
213Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Oregon56%
214Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Oregon88%
215Western Washington UniversityLewis and Clark College96%
218Oregon State UniversityWestern Washington University14%upset

Round 1

TeamRec.VikingsBeaversVikingsPioneersDucks
Western Washington University Vikings4–0✕WWWW
Oregon State University Beavers3–1L✕WWW
Portland State University Vikings2–2LL✕WW
Lewis and Clark College Pioneers1–3LLL✕W
University of Oregon Ducks0–4LLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.VikingsBeaversVikingsPioneersDucks
Western Washington University Vikings3–1✕LWWW
Oregon State University Beavers2–2W✕LLW
Portland State University Vikings2–2LW✕LW
Lewis and Clark College Pioneers2–2LWW✕L
University of Oregon Ducks1–3LLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
2 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-5 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3-4-6
3 Oregon State University Beavers 1-4-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 2-3-6
4 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
5 Western Washington University Vikings 2-3-5 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-4-6
6 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-6 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3-4-5
7 Oregon State University Beavers 1-3-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-4-6
8 Western Washington University Vikings 1-4-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2-3-6
9 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 3-5-6
10 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
11 University of Oregon Ducks 2-3-5 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-4-6
12 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-2-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-4-6
13 Oregon State University Beavers 1-3-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 2-4-6
14 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
15 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3-5-6
16 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-4-5 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-3-6
17 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-5-6
18 Oregon State University Beavers 1-4-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2-3-6
19 Western Washington University Vikings 1-3-4 def. Portland State University Vikings 2-5-6
20 Portland State University Vikings 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6

Conditions — 03/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1000.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 24.7 kn
From SE (124°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1000.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →