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Rainier Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 11 7 18
2 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 27 21 48
3 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 19 33 52
4 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 15 38 53
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 44 9 53
6 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 37 20 57
7 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 36 30 66
8 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 54 12 66
9 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 39 32 71
10 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 69 30 99
11 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 64 39 103
12 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 58 56 114
13 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 75 43 118
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 1 3 1 3 2 1 11 Kris Thompson '16
Cassidy Lynch '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 2 2 3 2 1 5 15 Patrick (Drew) Ehlers '19
Madison Thompson '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 5 1 6 1 4 2 19 Stephen Moran '16 [1-6]
No Show [1-2]
Janika Jordan '17 [3-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 4 5 5 7 3 3 27 Kate Flanagan '17 [1-6]
Cory Baranski '16 [1-4]
Johanna Mannisto '18 [5-6]
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 6 6 2 8 6 8 36 Neil Roberts '11
No Show
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 3 4 7 11 5 7 37 Colin Bartels '17
Veronica Owen '18
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 7 7 8 4 7 6 39 Andrew Wilkinson '18
Kimberly Smith '16
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 9 8 9 6 8 4 44 Dillon Kilroy '19
Carter Erickson '18
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 8 11 10 5 9 11 54 Robin Gropp '16
Junya Sakashita '17
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 10 10 4 12 13 9 58 Helen Thurlow '16
Sierra Prior '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 11 9 11 9 12 12 64 Charles Tokowitz '17
Tristan Litre '18
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 13 DNS 12 10 10 10 69 Sarah Raulston '16
Duncan Jackson '19
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 12 12 13 13 11 DNS 75 Abby Schamp '18
Eugene Sullivan '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 2 2 1 2 7 Connor Hughes '19
Audrey Jacobs '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 3 2 1 9 Benjamin Kaas '17
Nikoline Alden '19
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 1 5 5 12 Haines Whitacre '16
Dean Rienecker '18
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 4 4 8 4 20 Ezra Boyer '18
Rachel Cohen '19
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 6 5 7 3 21 Shaan Shridhar '19
Athina Ebert '17
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 5 DNS 4 7 30 Will Campbell '17
Patrick Townsend '18
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 8 7 9 6 30 Jonah Cadieux-Johnson '19
Catherine Hackwell '19
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 7 9 6 10 32 Alexander Muschler '16
Aike Burger '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 12 6 3 12 33 Sam Reul '19
No Show
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 10 10 10 8 38 Jin Parisien '18
Mitchell Baertlein '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 8 11 11 39 Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil '16 [1-4]
Frank Zhu '17 [1-2]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [3-4]
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 11 11 12 9 43 No Show [1-4]
Chi-Chun Lee '19 [1-2]
Thomas Hope '20 [3-4]
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings DNS DNS DNF DNS 56 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds909090909090
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers727272727272
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats555555
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 1737373737373
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 1757575757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 2767676767676
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 3777777
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings787878787878
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 1828282828282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 2818181818181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds90909090
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers72727272
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats5555
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173737373
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767676
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 37777
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings78787878
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 182828282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 281818181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings87878787
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Robin Gropp '16 Junya Sakashita '17
Pioneers Haines Whitacre '16 Dean Rienecker '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Charles Tokowitz '17 Tristan Litre '18
Wildcats Lincoln Oliver-O'Neil '16 [1-4] Frank Zhu '17 [1-2]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [3-4]
Oregon State University Oregon State University Patrick (Drew) Ehlers '19 Madison Thompson '16
Beavers 1 Jin Parisien '18 Mitchell Baertlein '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Andrew Wilkinson '18 Kimberly Smith '16
Beavers 2 Alexander Muschler '16 Aike Burger '16
Oregon State University Oregon State University Abby Schamp '18 Eugene Sullivan '18
Beavers 3 No Show [1-4] Chi-Chun Lee '19 [1-2]
Thomas Hope '20 [3-4]
Portland State University Portland State University Helen Thurlow '16 Sierra Prior '16
Vikings No Show No Show
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Neil Roberts '11 No Show
Thunderbirds Jonah Cadieux-Johnson '19 Catherine Hackwell '19
University of Oregon University of Oregon Stephen Moran '16 [1-6] No Show [1-2]
Janika Jordan '17 [3-6]
Ducks 1 Sam Reul '19 No Show
University of Oregon University of Oregon Sarah Raulston '16 Duncan Jackson '19
Ducks 2 Will Campbell '17 Patrick Townsend '18
University of Washington University of Washington Kate Flanagan '17 [1-6] Cory Baranski '16 [1-4]
Johanna Mannisto '18 [5-6]
Huskies 1 Shaan Shridhar '19 Athina Ebert '17
University of Washington University of Washington Kris Thompson '16 Cassidy Lynch '17
Huskies 2 Connor Hughes '19 Audrey Jacobs '18
University of Washington University of Washington Colin Bartels '17 Veronica Owen '18
Huskies 3 Ezra Boyer '18 Rachel Cohen '19
Western Washington University Western Washington University Dillon Kilroy '19 Carter Erickson '18
Vikings Benjamin Kaas '17 Nikoline Alden '19

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1024.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 4.6 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From NE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1024.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn · NE 7 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon State: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.48 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Oregon State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →