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NW Team Race Championship

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 8–1
2 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 5–4
3 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3–6
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,412 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 18 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.641 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.78 ± 0.39: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Washington
Huskies		17.97
school +0.28		Kris Thompson / Molly Utter 2.54
Sam Parish / Melissa Hickenbottom 1.79
Karl Haelsig / Sarah Redmond 3.21		93%8–1 (89%)−0.4
2University of Victoria
Thunder		25.80Geoff Abel / Adele Horbulyk
David Berry / Jordan Pow
Reid Cannon / Nicki Le Baron		52%5–4 (56%)+0.3
3Oregon State University
Beavers		43.61
school −0.42		Brian Hickman / Cragan Smith 1.52
Cody Odou / Aike Burger
Austin Sandifer / Kyle Peterzã©N 1.26 2–4
Austin Sandifer / Erin Morrison 1.27 1–2		8%3–6 (33%)+2.3
4Western Washington University
Vikings		35.51
school +1.06		Jake Fetterman / Rachael Mccrady 1.55
Taylor Martin / Elsa Balton
Gabe Hill / Kalli Light 1.41		47%2–7 (22%)−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3Oregon State University3.615.543–60.7+1.933.73%
2University of Victoria5.806.045–44.7+0.240.157%
1University of Washington7.977.388–18.4−0.590.289%
4Western Washington University5.513.742–74.2−1.782.799%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Brian HickmanOregon State University1.523.453–60.7+1.933.73%
Cody OdouOregon State University1.073.003–60.7+1.933.73%
Austin SandiferOregon State University1.263.193–60.7+1.933.73%
Geoff AbelUniversity of Victoria1.912.165–44.7+0.240.157%
David BerryUniversity of Victoria1.731.975–44.7+0.240.157%
Reid CannonUniversity of Victoria1.561.805–44.7+0.240.157%
Kris ThompsonUniversity of Washington2.541.958–18.4−0.590.289%
Sam ParishUniversity of Washington1.791.208–18.4−0.590.289%
Jake FettermanWestern Washington University1.55-0.222–74.2−1.782.799%
Taylor MartinWestern Washington University1.14-0.642–74.2−1.782.799%
Gabe HillWestern Washington University1.41-0.362–74.2−1.782.799%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of VictoriaWestern Washington University51%
12University of WashingtonOregon State University99%
13Oregon State UniversityWestern Washington University14%upset
14University of WashingtonWestern Washington University92%
15University of WashingtonUniversity of Victoria92%
16University of VictoriaOregon State University89%
27University of VictoriaWestern Washington University57%
28University of WashingtonOregon State University99%
29Oregon State UniversityWestern Washington University13%upset
210University of WashingtonWestern Washington University92%
211University of WashingtonUniversity of Victoria89%
212Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Victoria9%upset
313Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Victoria41%upset
314University of WashingtonOregon State University99%
315Western Washington UniversityOregon State University88%
316University of WashingtonWestern Washington University91%
317University of VictoriaUniversity of Washington12%upset
318University of VictoriaOregon State University92%

Round 1

TeamRec.HuskiesThunderBeaversVikings
University of Washington Huskies3–0✕WWW
University of Victoria Thunder2–1L✕WW
Oregon State University Beavers1–2LL✕W
Western Washington University Vikings0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HuskiesThunderBeaversVikings
University of Washington Huskies3–0✕WWW
University of Victoria Thunder1–2L✕LW
Oregon State University Beavers2–1LW✕W
Western Washington University Vikings0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.HuskiesThunderBeaversVikings
University of Washington Huskies2–1✕LWW
University of Victoria Thunder2–1W✕WL
Oregon State University Beavers0–3LL✕L
Western Washington University Vikings2–1LWW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Victoria Thunder 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
2 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-4-5
3 Oregon State University Beavers 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1-5-6 DSQ
4 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
5 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Thunder 3-5-6
6 University of Victoria Thunder 2-4-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 1-3-5 DSQ
7 University of Victoria Thunder 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2-5-6
8 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6
9 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-5
10 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4-5-6
11 University of Washington Huskies 1-3-5 def. University of Victoria Thunder 2-4-6
12 Oregon State University Beavers 2-3-5 def. University of Victoria Thunder 1-4-6
13 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-5 def. University of Victoria Thunder 3-4-6
14 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-5-6
15 Western Washington University Vikings 2-3-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 1-5-6
16 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
17 University of Victoria Thunder 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
18 University of Victoria Thunder 1-2-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 12.3 kn
Gusts to 27.2 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1015.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Washington in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled fleet-race days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →