University of Victoria '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (fleet 1.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–11 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 7–11 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.49 | 0.96 | 2–7 | 2.9 | −0.53 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2014-04-05 | NW Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.56 | 1.80 | 5–4 | 4.7 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 57% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.3 | 0.39 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 2.35 |
| North North JV | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 0.84 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.5 | 3.18 |
| Peter Wenner Invitational | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.9 | 2.61 |
| NW Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.2 | 2.03 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 12 | 6.0 | 2.49 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 1.53 |
| Sea to Sky | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 2.08 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.2 | 1.64 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
