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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 46 13 59
2 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 34 28 62
3 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 42 34 76
4 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 30 MRP 55 MRP 85 MRP
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 61 MRP 43 MRP 104 MRP
6 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 42 MRP 65 MRP 107 MRP
7 Beavers Beavers Beavers 49 MRP 67 MRP 116 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 30 MRP Nicki Le Baron '15
Ted Alley '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 5 4 3 6 4 5 4 3 34 Brock Poesiat '16
Sarah Berry '15
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 3 2 2 5 3 3 3 1 42 MRP Manuel Gomez '17
Lara Gemmrich '17
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 5 42 Jacqui Martindale '17
Nicholas Whyte '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 7 7 7 3 6 7 5 4 46 Emily Levalley '16
Hope Odendahl '16
Beavers Beavers Beavers 1 3 5 7 2 2 2 7 49 MRP
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 6 6 2 7 4 6 6 61 MRP Tate Higgins '16 [1-4]
Ezra Boyer '18 [5-8]
Audrey Jacobs '18 [1-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 13 Alexander Halliday '16
Grace Davidson '17
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 7 2 6 5 3 2 1 2 28 Reid Cannon '15
Leh Smallshaw '17
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 3 1 4 3 6 6 6 5 34 Jordan Pow '17
Carly Martindale '18
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 4 2 2 4 3 3 3 43 MRP Andrew Fitzgerald '16 [1-4]
Colin Bartels '17 [5-8]
Zengyang Mi '17 [1-4]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 5 6 1 6 5 4 4 4 55 MRP Kia Meiklejohn '18
Thea Warren '17
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 6 5 5 4 7 5 7 6 65 MRP No Show
No Show
Beavers Beavers Beavers 4 7 7 DNS 2 7 5 7 67 MRP
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
BeaversBeavers Beavers7676828284848686
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 18686878788888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 28888888876768282
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 38484868687878888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 48787888888887676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8282848486868787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings8888767682828484

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
BeaversBeavers Beavers7676828284848686
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 18686878788888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 28888888876768282
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 38484868687878888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 48787888888887676
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8282848486868787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings8888767682828484

Conditions — 11/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1009.7 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.6 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From N (8°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine1.4 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1009.7 hPa Rain0.17 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 13 kn · NW 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.27 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →