University of Washington '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.87 (fleet 1.20) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–4 (0%) as crew 4–5 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | — | 4–2 |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 0–4 | 0–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 4–9 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | crew | 1.18 | 0.59 | 4–2 | 4.6 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–4 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | crew | 1.31 | -1.69 | 0–3 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NW Team Race | Crew | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| North North JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 1.80 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Froshsoph | Crew | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
