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Western Canada Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 16 9 25
2 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 14 18 32
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 24 17 41
4 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 21 29 50
5 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 31 27 58
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 35 27 62
7 University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 28 41 69
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 2 6 2 1 2 1 14 Geoff Abel '14
Adele Horbulyk '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 1 1 1 OCS 3 2 16 David Berry '16
Jennifer Macdonald '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 6 3 4 3 1 4 21 Ted Alley '16
Spencer Davis '15
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 3 5 7 2 4 3 24 Taylor Martin '16 [1-3, 5-6]
Rachael Mccrady '14 [4]
Rachael Mccrady '14 [1-3, 5-6]
Taylor Martin '16 [4]
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 7 2 3 4 5 7 28 Brock Poesiat '16
Leh Smallshaw '17
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 5 4 5 5 6 6 31 Johan Jorna '14
Alyssa Staples '14
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 4 7 6 6 7 5 35 Ryan Van Slyck '17
Quanah Green '17
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 9 Reid Cannon '15
David Berry '16
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 1 3 6 2 1 4 17 Gabe Hill '16
Hope Odendahl '16
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 2 6 2 2 3 2 3 18 Ross Jespersen '16
Lara Gemmrich '17
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 3 5 4 6 4 5 27 Charlie Shoemaker '16
Brianne Busey '14
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 5 4 5 5 6 2 27 Greg Moran '14
No Show
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 3 4 6 3 4 5 7 29 Jordan Pow '17
Liam Quinlan '14
University of Victoria University of Victoria Thunder 4 7 7 7 7 7 6 41 Noah Havlaar '15
Chris Dimoff '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 1878787878787
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 2868686868686
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 3888888888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 4898989898989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1444444
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 1878787878787
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 2868686868686
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 3888888888888
University of VictoriaUniversity of Victoria Thunder 4898989898989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1444444
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2666666

Conditions — 02/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From SE (132°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1015.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 2 kn · NE 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Victoria: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Victoria by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Victoria, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →