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NW Team Race Qualifiers

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 9–0
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 6–3
3 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3–6
4 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,506 team race matches sailed before 2013-05-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.332 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.19 ± 0.40: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1University of Washington
Huskies		17.00Karl Haelsig / Sarah Redmond 3.03
Zachary Forcade / Caylin Cordray 2.14
Kris Thompson / Molly Utter 1.80		97%9–0 (100%)+0.3
2Western Washington University
Vikings		24.49
school +0.54		Paul Foley / Debbi Kenote
Alex Waldron / Rachael Mccrady 1.14
Jake Fetterman / Angela Gossom		62%6–3 (67%)+0.4
3University of Oregon
Ducks		41.34
home +0.33		Ryan Fritsen / Kaili Swetland
Jackson Thomas / Mickey Scott
Eliza Pearce / Kaitlin Livingston		8%3–6 (33%)+2.3
4Oregon State University
Beavers		32.79Brian Hickman / Kyle Peterzã©N
Austin Sandifer / Cragan Smith
Aike Burger / Erin Morrison		33%0–9 (0%)−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1University of Washington7.0010.009–08.7≥+3.000.474%
3University of Oregon1.343.503–60.7+2.164.02%
2Western Washington University4.495.066–35.6+0.570.258%
4Oregon State University2.79-0.210–93.0≤−3.007.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Zachary ForcadeUniversity of Washington2.145.149–08.7≥+3.000.474%
Kris ThompsonUniversity of Washington1.804.809–08.7≥+3.000.474%
Ryan FritsenUniversity of Oregon0.442.603–60.7+2.164.02%
Eliza PearceUniversity of Oregon0.522.683–60.7+2.164.02%
Paul FoleyWestern Washington University1.682.256–35.6+0.570.258%
Alex WaldronWestern Washington University1.141.716–35.6+0.570.258%
Jake FettermanWestern Washington University0.931.506–35.6+0.570.258%
Brian HickmanOregon State University1.08-1.920–93.0≤−3.007.2>99%
Austin SandiferOregon State University1.09-1.910–93.0≤−3.007.2>99%
Aike BurgerOregon State University0.17-2.830–93.0≤−3.007.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of OregonOregon State University19%upset
12University of WashingtonUniversity of Oregon100%
13Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Oregon95%
14University of WashingtonOregon State University99%
15Western Washington UniversityOregon State University84%
16University of WashingtonWestern Washington University93%
27University of OregonOregon State University19%upset
28University of WashingtonUniversity of Oregon100%
29Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Oregon95%
210University of WashingtonOregon State University98%
211Western Washington UniversityOregon State University83%
212University of WashingtonWestern Washington University92%
313University of OregonOregon State University19%upset
314University of WashingtonUniversity of Oregon100%
315Western Washington UniversityUniversity of Oregon95%
316University of WashingtonOregon State University98%
317Western Washington UniversityOregon State University83%
318University of WashingtonWestern Washington University92%

Round 1

TeamRec.HuskiesVikingsDucksBeavers
University of Washington Huskies3–0✕WWW
Western Washington University Vikings2–1L✕WW
University of Oregon Ducks1–2LL✕W
Oregon State University Beavers0–3LLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.HuskiesVikingsDucksBeavers
University of Washington Huskies3–0✕WWW
Western Washington University Vikings2–1L✕WW
University of Oregon Ducks1–2LL✕W
Oregon State University Beavers0–3LLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.HuskiesVikingsDucksBeavers
University of Washington Huskies3–0✕WWW
Western Washington University Vikings2–1L✕WW
University of Oregon Ducks1–2LL✕W
Oregon State University Beavers0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6 DNS
2 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-5-6
3 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-6 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-5
4 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6 DNS
5 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-5-6 DNS
6 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-4-6
7 University of Oregon Ducks 2-3-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 1-5-6 DNS
8 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-4 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-5-6
9 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
10 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6 DNS
11 Western Washington University Vikings 1-4-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2-3-5 DNS
12 University of Washington Huskies 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 1-5-6
13 University of Oregon Ducks 2-3-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 1-4-5 DNS
14 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
15 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
16 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 4-5-6 DNS
17 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 3-5-6 DNS
18 University of Washington Huskies 1-4-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2-3-6

Conditions — 05/04/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1013.3 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1013.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Oregon — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Oregon in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →