California State University Monterey Bay '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.48 (fleet 0.66) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–21 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 7–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 11–21 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-10 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.70 | 0.75 | 4–10 | 3.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2015-05-03 | 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.67 | -2.33 | 0–8 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2015-02-28 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.18 | 2.18 | 7–3 | 3.4 | +2.00 | 5.5 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.4 | 1.07 |
| Pacific Coast Coed Dinghy Championships | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.0 | 0.44 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 18.2 | 0.42 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| 2018 St. Francis Invite | Skipper | B | 17 | 13.2 | 0.18 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship - 2 division | Skipper | B | 6 | 18.2 | -0.12 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 18.2 | -0.12 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | A | 8 | 21.2 | 0.00 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 11 | 11.0 | 0.17 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.9 | 1.07 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.1 | -0.13 |
| Stoney Burke | Crew | B | 7 | 16.1 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.1 | 0.40 |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.8 | 0.09 |
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.9 | -3.31 |
| 2015 PCCSC Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 26.7 | -1.68 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 8 | 20.8 | -1.05 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 8 | 20.8 | -1.05 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.6 | -0.22 |
| Central Coast Challenge | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.7 | -1.05 |
| 2014 Fall Women's PCC's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.9 | 0.65 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
